Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate a minimum temperature near 11°C for Warsaw on September 18 under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow and dew points around 9–11°C, limiting strong radiational cooling. This supports the elevated market-implied odds for outcomes around 8°C while the notable probability on 5°C or below reflects residual uncertainty from potential clearer nocturnal conditions or minor cold advection. Recent observations show variable September lows fluctuating between 5–14°C, underscoring model spread. Updated runs from major centers expected overnight will likely narrow guidance ahead of the overnight minimum period.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Varsovia el 18 de septiembre?
¿Temperatura más baja en Varsovia el 18 de septiembre?
5°C o menos 64%
15°C o más 63%
8°C 43%
9°C 40%
NUEVO
NUEVO
18 sep 2026
5°C o menos
64%
6°C
9%
7°C
21%
8°C
43%
9°C
40%
10°C
39%
11°C
38%
12°C
38%
13°C
39%
14°C
14%
15°C o más
63%
5°C o menos 64%
15°C o más 63%
8°C 43%
9°C 40%
NUEVO
NUEVO
18 sep 2026
5°C o menos
$0 Vol.
64%
6°C
$0 Vol.
9%
7°C
$76 Vol.
21%
8°C
$67 Vol.
43%
9°C
$0 Vol.
40%
10°C
$0 Vol.
39%
11°C
$0 Vol.
38%
12°C
$0 Vol.
38%
13°C
$0 Vol.
39%
14°C
$0 Vol.
14%
15°C o más
$0 Vol.
63%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate a minimum temperature near 11°C for Warsaw on September 18 under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow and dew points around 9–11°C, limiting strong radiational cooling. This supports the elevated market-implied odds for outcomes around 8°C while the notable probability on 5°C or below reflects residual uncertainty from potential clearer nocturnal conditions or minor cold advection. Recent observations show variable September lows fluctuating between 5–14°C, underscoring model spread. Updated runs from major centers expected overnight will likely narrow guidance ahead of the overnight minimum period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$142Fecha de finalización
18 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate a minimum temperature near 11°C for Warsaw on September 18 under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow and dew points around 9–11°C, limiting strong radiational cooling. This supports the elevated market-implied odds for outcomes around 8°C while the notable probability on 5°C or below reflects residual uncertainty from potential clearer nocturnal conditions or minor cold advection. Recent observations show variable September lows fluctuating between 5–14°C, underscoring model spread. Updated runs from major centers expected overnight will likely narrow guidance ahead of the overnight minimum period.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$142Fecha de finalización
18 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 16, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate a minimum temperature near 11°C for Warsaw on September 18 under partly cloudy skies with light southerly flow and dew points around 9–11°C, limiting strong radiational cooling. This supports the elevated market-implied odds for outcomes around 8°C while the notable probability on 5°C or below reflects residual uncertainty from potential clearer nocturnal conditions or minor cold advection. Recent observations show variable September lows fluctuating between 5–14°C, underscoring model spread. Updated runs from major centers expected overnight will likely narrow guidance ahead of the overnight minimum period.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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