Recent Q1 2026 GDP contraction of 0.6% quarter-over-quarter, following modest Q4 expansion, combined with sticky core inflation near 4.5%, underpins closely matched Polymarket probabilities clustered around 43-49% across growth buckets from negative to above 2.5%. Traders weigh Banxico’s ongoing rate cuts to 6.5-6.75% against persistent services and food price pressures that limit demand-side support. U.S. tariff exposure, peso strength, and softening manufacturing offset resilient consumption, remittances, and labor market data. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty ahead of the July preliminary Q2 release, with swing factors including energy prices, U.S. demand, and any additional monetary easing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoMexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?
Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?
1.5-2.0% 33%
1.0-1.5% 31%
2.0-2.5% 13.5%
2.5%+ 6.8%
$31,819 Vol.
$31,819 Vol.
30 jul 2026
<-0,5%
5%
-0.5-0.0%
3%
0.0-0.5%
6%
0.5-1.0%
5%
1.0-1.5%
34%
1.5-2.0%
40%
2.0-2.5%
13%
2.5%+
7%
1.5-2.0% 33%
1.0-1.5% 31%
2.0-2.5% 13.5%
2.5%+ 6.8%
$31,819 Vol.
$31,819 Vol.
30 jul 2026
<-0,5%
$4,671 Vol.
5%
-0.5-0.0%
$9,619 Vol.
3%
0.0-0.5%
$2,170 Vol.
6%
0.5-1.0%
$1,472 Vol.
5%
1.0-1.5%
$3,085 Vol.
34%
1.5-2.0%
$2,034 Vol.
40%
2.0-2.5%
$1,882 Vol.
13%
2.5%+
$6,886 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q1 2026 GDP contraction of 0.6% quarter-over-quarter, following modest Q4 expansion, combined with sticky core inflation near 4.5%, underpins closely matched Polymarket probabilities clustered around 43-49% across growth buckets from negative to above 2.5%. Traders weigh Banxico’s ongoing rate cuts to 6.5-6.75% against persistent services and food price pressures that limit demand-side support. U.S. tariff exposure, peso strength, and softening manufacturing offset resilient consumption, remittances, and labor market data. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty ahead of the July preliminary Q2 release, with swing factors including energy prices, U.S. demand, and any additional monetary easing.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ET
Volumen
$31,819Fecha de finalización
30 jul 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q1 2026 GDP contraction of 0.6% quarter-over-quarter, following modest Q4 expansion, combined with sticky core inflation near 4.5%, underpins closely matched Polymarket probabilities clustered around 43-49% across growth buckets from negative to above 2.5%. Traders weigh Banxico’s ongoing rate cuts to 6.5-6.75% against persistent services and food price pressures that limit demand-side support. U.S. tariff exposure, peso strength, and softening manufacturing offset resilient consumption, remittances, and labor market data. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty ahead of the July preliminary Q2 release, with swing factors including energy prices, U.S. demand, and any additional monetary easing.
This market will resolve according to Mexico's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Timely Estimate of Quarterly GDP" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$31,819Fecha de finalización
30 jul 2026Mercado abierto
May 4, 2026, 11:35 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q1 2026 GDP contraction of 0.6% quarter-over-quarter, following modest Q4 expansion, combined with sticky core inflation near 4.5%, underpins closely matched Polymarket probabilities clustered around 43-49% across growth buckets from negative to above 2.5%. Traders weigh Banxico’s ongoing rate cuts to 6.5-6.75% against persistent services and food price pressures that limit demand-side support. U.S. tariff exposure, peso strength, and softening manufacturing offset resilient consumption, remittances, and labor market data. Market-implied odds reflect uncertainty ahead of the July preliminary Q2 release, with swing factors including energy prices, U.S. demand, and any additional monetary easing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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