Recent Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking for Q2 2026 hovers near 3.0 percent, supported by May's resilient labor market data showing 172,000 nonfarm payroll gains and a steady 4.3 percent unemployment rate. However, the downward revision to Q1 growth at 1.6 percent, combined with elevated inflation from energy price spikes tied to Middle East developments and tariff effects, has tempered expectations. Professional forecasters project Q2 expansion around 2.1 percent amid these crosscurrents. With Polymarket probabilities tightly clustered between 2.0–3.5 percent, trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether consumer spending and investment can sustain momentum or if policy headwinds will pull the reading lower ahead of the July advance estimate.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoUS GDP growth in Q2 2026?
US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
2.0–2.5% 33%
1.5–2.0% 26%
2.5–3.0% 17%
3.0–3.5% 15.4%
$16,871 Vol.
$16,871 Vol.
30 jul 2026
<1.0%
10%
1.0–1.5%
3%
1.5–2.0%
26%
2.0–2.5%
33%
2.5–3.0%
17%
3.0–3.5%
18%
≥3.5%
4%
2.0–2.5% 33%
1.5–2.0% 26%
2.5–3.0% 17%
3.0–3.5% 15.4%
$16,871 Vol.
$16,871 Vol.
30 jul 2026
<1.0%
$2,621 Vol.
10%
1.0–1.5%
$1,795 Vol.
3%
1.5–2.0%
$2,861 Vol.
26%
2.0–2.5%
$2,697 Vol.
33%
2.5–3.0%
$2,253 Vol.
17%
3.0–3.5%
$1,738 Vol.
18%
≥3.5%
$2,906 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking for Q2 2026 hovers near 3.0 percent, supported by May's resilient labor market data showing 172,000 nonfarm payroll gains and a steady 4.3 percent unemployment rate. However, the downward revision to Q1 growth at 1.6 percent, combined with elevated inflation from energy price spikes tied to Middle East developments and tariff effects, has tempered expectations. Professional forecasters project Q2 expansion around 2.1 percent amid these crosscurrents. With Polymarket probabilities tightly clustered between 2.0–3.5 percent, trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether consumer spending and investment can sustain momentum or if policy headwinds will pull the reading lower ahead of the July advance estimate.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Volumen
$16,871Fecha de finalización
30 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking for Q2 2026 hovers near 3.0 percent, supported by May's resilient labor market data showing 172,000 nonfarm payroll gains and a steady 4.3 percent unemployment rate. However, the downward revision to Q1 growth at 1.6 percent, combined with elevated inflation from energy price spikes tied to Middle East developments and tariff effects, has tempered expectations. Professional forecasters project Q2 expansion around 2.1 percent amid these crosscurrents. With Polymarket probabilities tightly clustered between 2.0–3.5 percent, trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether consumer spending and investment can sustain momentum or if policy headwinds will pull the reading lower ahead of the July advance estimate.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Volumen
$16,871Fecha de finalización
30 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracking for Q2 2026 hovers near 3.0 percent, supported by May's resilient labor market data showing 172,000 nonfarm payroll gains and a steady 4.3 percent unemployment rate. However, the downward revision to Q1 growth at 1.6 percent, combined with elevated inflation from energy price spikes tied to Middle East developments and tariff effects, has tempered expectations. Professional forecasters project Q2 expansion around 2.1 percent amid these crosscurrents. With Polymarket probabilities tightly clustered between 2.0–3.5 percent, trader sentiment reflects uncertainty over whether consumer spending and investment can sustain momentum or if policy headwinds will pull the reading lower ahead of the July advance estimate.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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