Elevated PCE inflation near 3.6% year-over-year, driven by supply disruptions and energy prices, remains the dominant factor behind closely matched Polymarket probabilities across Fed rate paths for the September, October, and December 2026 meetings. With the federal funds target at 3.50–3.75%, recent FOMC projections show a split among officials on the need for hikes, while softening labor market data and anchored expectations create offsetting pressure for pauses. Trader consensus, backed by real capital at these levels, highlights sensitivity to incoming prints on core inflation and employment before the September 15–16 decision, plus subsequent releases that could shift the balance between tightening and holding.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSubir–Pausar–Subir 23%
Subida–Pausa–Pausa 17%
Pausar–Pausar–Subir 15%
Subida–subida–pausa 14%
NUEVO
NUEVO
9 dic 2026
Subir–Pausar–Subir
23%
Subida–Pausa–Pausa
17%
Subida–Subida–Subida
7%
Subida–subida–pausa
14%
Pausar–Pausar–Subir
15%
Pausa–pausa–pausa
14%
Pausa–Subida–Subida
8%
Pausa–Subida–Pausa
9%
Otro
6%
Subir–Pausar–Subir 23%
Subida–Pausa–Pausa 17%
Pausar–Pausar–Subir 15%
Subida–subida–pausa 14%
NUEVO
NUEVO
9 dic 2026
Subir–Pausar–Subir
$138 Vol.
23%
Subida–Pausa–Pausa
$137 Vol.
17%
Subida–Subida–Subida
$50 Vol.
7%
Subida–subida–pausa
$68 Vol.
14%
Pausar–Pausar–Subir
$106 Vol.
15%
Pausa–pausa–pausa
$45 Vol.
14%
Pausa–Subida–Subida
$35 Vol.
8%
Pausa–Subida–Pausa
$52 Vol.
9%
Otro
$35 Vol.
6%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated PCE inflation near 3.6% year-over-year, driven by supply disruptions and energy prices, remains the dominant factor behind closely matched Polymarket probabilities across Fed rate paths for the September, October, and December 2026 meetings. With the federal funds target at 3.50–3.75%, recent FOMC projections show a split among officials on the need for hikes, while softening labor market data and anchored expectations create offsetting pressure for pauses. Trader consensus, backed by real capital at these levels, highlights sensitivity to incoming prints on core inflation and employment before the September 15–16 decision, plus subsequent releases that could shift the balance between tightening and holding.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Mercado abierto: Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Volumen
$666Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmElevated PCE inflation near 3.6% year-over-year, driven by supply disruptions and energy prices, remains the dominant factor behind closely matched Polymarket probabilities across Fed rate paths for the September, October, and December 2026 meetings. With the federal funds target at 3.50–3.75%, recent FOMC projections show a split among officials on the need for hikes, while softening labor market data and anchored expectations create offsetting pressure for pauses. Trader consensus, backed by real capital at these levels, highlights sensitivity to incoming prints on core inflation and employment before the September 15–16 decision, plus subsequent releases that could shift the balance between tightening and holding.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volumen
$666Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated PCE inflation near 3.6% year-over-year, driven by supply disruptions and energy prices, remains the dominant factor behind closely matched Polymarket probabilities across Fed rate paths for the September, October, and December 2026 meetings. With the federal funds target at 3.50–3.75%, recent FOMC projections show a split among officials on the need for hikes, while softening labor market data and anchored expectations create offsetting pressure for pauses. Trader consensus, backed by real capital at these levels, highlights sensitivity to incoming prints on core inflation and employment before the September 15–16 decision, plus subsequent releases that could shift the balance between tightening and holding.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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