The Federal Reserve's unanimous September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75%-4% target range, its first hike since 2023, has anchored trader sentiment for at least one additional increase by year-end. Persistent inflation pressures, with August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and FOMC median projections lifting 2026 PCE inflation to 3.7%, combined with resilient economic growth and a tight labor market, prompted the hawkish shift. The updated dot plot showed 16 of 18 participants expecting further tightening, reflecting market-implied odds that align with the 81% Yes probability on Polymarket. Upcoming catalysts include the October FOMC meeting and fresh CPI and employment data, which could confirm or alter the path if inflation moderates faster than anticipated.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
81% probabilidad
NUEVO
$18,510 Vol.
NUEVO
$18,510 Vol.
8 dic 2026
Sí
81% probabilidad
NUEVO
$18,510 Vol.
NUEVO
$18,510 Vol.
8 dic 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve's unanimous September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75%-4% target range, its first hike since 2023, has anchored trader sentiment for at least one additional increase by year-end. Persistent inflation pressures, with August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and FOMC median projections lifting 2026 PCE inflation to 3.7%, combined with resilient economic growth and a tight labor market, prompted the hawkish shift. The updated dot plot showed 16 of 18 participants expecting further tightening, reflecting market-implied odds that align with the 81% Yes probability on Polymarket. Upcoming catalysts include the October FOMC meeting and fresh CPI and employment data, which could confirm or alter the path if inflation moderates faster than anticipated.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volumen
$18,510Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve's unanimous September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75%-4% target range, its first hike since 2023, has anchored trader sentiment for at least one additional increase by year-end. Persistent inflation pressures, with August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and FOMC median projections lifting 2026 PCE inflation to 3.7%, combined with resilient economic growth and a tight labor market, prompted the hawkish shift. The updated dot plot showed 16 of 18 participants expecting further tightening, reflecting market-implied odds that align with the 81% Yes probability on Polymarket. Upcoming catalysts include the October FOMC meeting and fresh CPI and employment data, which could confirm or alter the path if inflation moderates faster than anticipated.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$18,510Fecha de finalización
9 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Federal Reserve's unanimous September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75%-4% target range, its first hike since 2023, has anchored trader sentiment for at least one additional increase by year-end. Persistent inflation pressures, with August CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and FOMC median projections lifting 2026 PCE inflation to 3.7%, combined with resilient economic growth and a tight labor market, prompted the hawkish shift. The updated dot plot showed 16 of 18 participants expecting further tightening, reflecting market-implied odds that align with the 81% Yes probability on Polymarket. Upcoming catalysts include the October FOMC meeting and fresh CPI and employment data, which could confirm or alter the path if inflation moderates faster than anticipated.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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