European Union sanctions adopted in 2025 explicitly prohibit transactions involving the Nord Stream pipelines, while the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and REPowerEU strategy have locked in Europe's shift to alternative suppliers such as LNG and Norwegian gas. German authorities under Chancellor Friedrich Merz continue to block any reactivation, consistent with broader efforts to maintain pressure on Moscow, and one intact Nord Stream 2 line remains non-operational amid active legal proceedings over the 2022 sabotage. These structural barriers, reinforced by completed diversification and absent any near-term policy reversal, underpin the market's strong consensus against resumption before 2027. A swift peace agreement or unexpected German government change could still reopen discussion, though both remain distant within the resolution window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
3% probabilidad
$162,468 Vol.
$162,468 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
3% probabilidad
$162,468 Vol.
$162,468 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
European Union sanctions adopted in 2025 explicitly prohibit transactions involving the Nord Stream pipelines, while the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and REPowerEU strategy have locked in Europe's shift to alternative suppliers such as LNG and Norwegian gas. German authorities under Chancellor Friedrich Merz continue to block any reactivation, consistent with broader efforts to maintain pressure on Moscow, and one intact Nord Stream 2 line remains non-operational amid active legal proceedings over the 2022 sabotage. These structural barriers, reinforced by completed diversification and absent any near-term policy reversal, underpin the market's strong consensus against resumption before 2027. A swift peace agreement or unexpected German government change could still reopen discussion, though both remain distant within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ET
Volumen
$162,468Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
European Union sanctions adopted in 2025 explicitly prohibit transactions involving the Nord Stream pipelines, while the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and REPowerEU strategy have locked in Europe's shift to alternative suppliers such as LNG and Norwegian gas. German authorities under Chancellor Friedrich Merz continue to block any reactivation, consistent with broader efforts to maintain pressure on Moscow, and one intact Nord Stream 2 line remains non-operational amid active legal proceedings over the 2022 sabotage. These structural barriers, reinforced by completed diversification and absent any near-term policy reversal, underpin the market's strong consensus against resumption before 2027. A swift peace agreement or unexpected German government change could still reopen discussion, though both remain distant within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any line of either Nord Stream 1 or Nord Stream 2 delivers natural gas to Germany or any EU member state in commercial quantities at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
"Commercial quantities" refers to sustained, measurable flows of gas intended for end-user distribution. Test flows, pressure tests, or symbolic gas transfers not tied to actual supply operations will not count.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$162,468Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 5, 2025, 2:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...European Union sanctions adopted in 2025 explicitly prohibit transactions involving the Nord Stream pipelines, while the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and REPowerEU strategy have locked in Europe's shift to alternative suppliers such as LNG and Norwegian gas. German authorities under Chancellor Friedrich Merz continue to block any reactivation, consistent with broader efforts to maintain pressure on Moscow, and one intact Nord Stream 2 line remains non-operational amid active legal proceedings over the 2022 sabotage. These structural barriers, reinforced by completed diversification and absent any near-term policy reversal, underpin the market's strong consensus against resumption before 2027. A swift peace agreement or unexpected German government change could still reopen discussion, though both remain distant within the resolution window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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