Incumbent Josh Riley holds a commanding lead in the NY-19 House race due to the district’s modest Democratic lean, his narrow 2024 victory that improved on prior results, and substantial fundraising advantages exceeding $4.8 million compared to Peter Oberacker’s $1.2 million. Forecasters rate the seat Likely or Lean Democratic, reflecting Riley’s cross-aisle appeal in a region that has trended slightly leftward. Republican support has notably declined, with the Congressional Leadership Fund withdrawing millions in ad reservations and the NRCC removing Oberacker from its priority program amid questions about his viability. Utility cost disputes and policy contrasts on taxes and health care remain active issues ahead of the November 3 vote. A major national shift, late scandal, or unusually high turnout could still alter the outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$21,226 Vol.
$21,226 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Josh Riley (D)
94%
Peter Oberacker (R)
5%
$21,226 Vol.
$21,226 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Josh Riley (D)
$10,248 Vol.
94%
Peter Oberacker (R)
$10,978 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Josh Riley holds a commanding lead in the NY-19 House race due to the district’s modest Democratic lean, his narrow 2024 victory that improved on prior results, and substantial fundraising advantages exceeding $4.8 million compared to Peter Oberacker’s $1.2 million. Forecasters rate the seat Likely or Lean Democratic, reflecting Riley’s cross-aisle appeal in a region that has trended slightly leftward. Republican support has notably declined, with the Congressional Leadership Fund withdrawing millions in ad reservations and the NRCC removing Oberacker from its priority program amid questions about his viability. Utility cost disputes and policy contrasts on taxes and health care remain active issues ahead of the November 3 vote. A major national shift, late scandal, or unusually high turnout could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
Volumen
$21,226Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Josh Riley holds a commanding lead in the NY-19 House race due to the district’s modest Democratic lean, his narrow 2024 victory that improved on prior results, and substantial fundraising advantages exceeding $4.8 million compared to Peter Oberacker’s $1.2 million. Forecasters rate the seat Likely or Lean Democratic, reflecting Riley’s cross-aisle appeal in a region that has trended slightly leftward. Republican support has notably declined, with the Congressional Leadership Fund withdrawing millions in ad reservations and the NRCC removing Oberacker from its priority program amid questions about his viability. Utility cost disputes and policy contrasts on taxes and health care remain active issues ahead of the November 3 vote. A major national shift, late scandal, or unusually high turnout could still alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$21,226Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Josh Riley holds a commanding lead in the NY-19 House race due to the district’s modest Democratic lean, his narrow 2024 victory that improved on prior results, and substantial fundraising advantages exceeding $4.8 million compared to Peter Oberacker’s $1.2 million. Forecasters rate the seat Likely or Lean Democratic, reflecting Riley’s cross-aisle appeal in a region that has trended slightly leftward. Republican support has notably declined, with the Congressional Leadership Fund withdrawing millions in ad reservations and the NRCC removing Oberacker from its priority program amid questions about his viability. Utility cost disputes and policy contrasts on taxes and health care remain active issues ahead of the November 3 vote. A major national shift, late scandal, or unusually high turnout could still alter the outcome.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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