Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a clear edge in the NY-18 race, benefiting from the district’s D+2 Partisan Voter Index and his prior double-digit general-election margin. With both party primaries set for June 23 and effectively uncontested—allowing Ryan and Republican Jackie Auringer to advance automatically—traders see limited opportunity for an upset before the November 3 general election. A single recent poll showed Ryan’s party ahead by seven points, consistent with the market’s 64.9% implied probability for Democrats versus 13.7% for Republicans. The absence of high-profile challengers or major campaign developments in the past month has kept probabilities stable, reflecting the seat’s modest Democratic lean and structural advantages for the sitting member.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes de NY-18
Ganador de las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes de NY-18
$33,316 Vol.
$33,316 Vol.
4 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
12%
Partido Demócrata
63%
$33,316 Vol.
$33,316 Vol.
4 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$1,303 Vol.
12%
Partido Demócrata
$32,013 Vol.
63%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a clear edge in the NY-18 race, benefiting from the district’s D+2 Partisan Voter Index and his prior double-digit general-election margin. With both party primaries set for June 23 and effectively uncontested—allowing Ryan and Republican Jackie Auringer to advance automatically—traders see limited opportunity for an upset before the November 3 general election. A single recent poll showed Ryan’s party ahead by seven points, consistent with the market’s 64.9% implied probability for Democrats versus 13.7% for Republicans. The absence of high-profile challengers or major campaign developments in the past month has kept probabilities stable, reflecting the seat’s modest Democratic lean and structural advantages for the sitting member.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volumen
$33,316Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a clear edge in the NY-18 race, benefiting from the district’s D+2 Partisan Voter Index and his prior double-digit general-election margin. With both party primaries set for June 23 and effectively uncontested—allowing Ryan and Republican Jackie Auringer to advance automatically—traders see limited opportunity for an upset before the November 3 general election. A single recent poll showed Ryan’s party ahead by seven points, consistent with the market’s 64.9% implied probability for Democrats versus 13.7% for Republicans. The absence of high-profile challengers or major campaign developments in the past month has kept probabilities stable, reflecting the seat’s modest Democratic lean and structural advantages for the sitting member.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$33,316Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan holds a clear edge in the NY-18 race, benefiting from the district’s D+2 Partisan Voter Index and his prior double-digit general-election margin. With both party primaries set for June 23 and effectively uncontested—allowing Ryan and Republican Jackie Auringer to advance automatically—traders see limited opportunity for an upset before the November 3 general election. A single recent poll showed Ryan’s party ahead by seven points, consistent with the market’s 64.9% implied probability for Democrats versus 13.7% for Republicans. The absence of high-profile challengers or major campaign developments in the past month has kept probabilities stable, reflecting the seat’s modest Democratic lean and structural advantages for the sitting member.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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