The competitive nature of New York’s 17th congressional district, a Hudson Valley seat with a narrow partisan lean, underpins trader pricing that favors Democrats over incumbent Republican Michael Lawler in the November 2026 general election. Lawler, first elected in 2022, faces no primary opposition, while Democrats are set to choose among Cait Conley, Beth Davidson, and others in a June 23 primary that recent internal polls show as fluid but leaning toward candidates with strong local or veteran profiles. Cook Political Report and other nonpartisan ratings classify the race as a toss-up or lean-Republican, consistent with the district’s history of narrow margins and its status as a top Democratic target. No major late developments have shifted the balance in recent weeks, leaving probabilities anchored in the seat’s underlying swing dynamics and the strength of the eventual Democratic nominee.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes de NY-17
Ganador de las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes de NY-17
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
69%
Partido Republicano
25%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$304 Vol.
69%
Partido Republicano
$178 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The competitive nature of New York’s 17th congressional district, a Hudson Valley seat with a narrow partisan lean, underpins trader pricing that favors Democrats over incumbent Republican Michael Lawler in the November 2026 general election. Lawler, first elected in 2022, faces no primary opposition, while Democrats are set to choose among Cait Conley, Beth Davidson, and others in a June 23 primary that recent internal polls show as fluid but leaning toward candidates with strong local or veteran profiles. Cook Political Report and other nonpartisan ratings classify the race as a toss-up or lean-Republican, consistent with the district’s history of narrow margins and its status as a top Democratic target. No major late developments have shifted the balance in recent weeks, leaving probabilities anchored in the seat’s underlying swing dynamics and the strength of the eventual Democratic nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volumen
$481Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The competitive nature of New York’s 17th congressional district, a Hudson Valley seat with a narrow partisan lean, underpins trader pricing that favors Democrats over incumbent Republican Michael Lawler in the November 2026 general election. Lawler, first elected in 2022, faces no primary opposition, while Democrats are set to choose among Cait Conley, Beth Davidson, and others in a June 23 primary that recent internal polls show as fluid but leaning toward candidates with strong local or veteran profiles. Cook Political Report and other nonpartisan ratings classify the race as a toss-up or lean-Republican, consistent with the district’s history of narrow margins and its status as a top Democratic target. No major late developments have shifted the balance in recent weeks, leaving probabilities anchored in the seat’s underlying swing dynamics and the strength of the eventual Democratic nominee.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$481Fecha de finalización
4 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The competitive nature of New York’s 17th congressional district, a Hudson Valley seat with a narrow partisan lean, underpins trader pricing that favors Democrats over incumbent Republican Michael Lawler in the November 2026 general election. Lawler, first elected in 2022, faces no primary opposition, while Democrats are set to choose among Cait Conley, Beth Davidson, and others in a June 23 primary that recent internal polls show as fluid but leaning toward candidates with strong local or veteran profiles. Cook Political Report and other nonpartisan ratings classify the race as a toss-up or lean-Republican, consistent with the district’s history of narrow margins and its status as a top Democratic target. No major late developments have shifted the balance in recent weeks, leaving probabilities anchored in the seat’s underlying swing dynamics and the strength of the eventual Democratic nominee.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes