Texas's 38th congressional district, redrawn in 2025 to favor Republican performance, positions the GOP nominee as the clear frontrunner heading into the November 2026 general election. Jon Bonck, who leads the Republican primary runoff with a Trump endorsement and substantial fundraising, faces Democratic nominee Melissa McDonough in a seat where recent statewide polling shows a modest Republican edge. The May 26 runoff outcome and subsequent campaign dynamics will shape final positioning, though the district's structural lean keeps Democratic chances limited absent unusual turnout shifts or late developments. Trader consensus reflects these baseline electoral math and historical patterns in similar Texas districts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes de TX-38
Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara de Representantes de TX-38
$16,905 Vol.
$16,905 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
80%
Partido Demócrata
20%
$16,905 Vol.
$16,905 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$11,350 Vol.
80%
Partido Demócrata
$5,555 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 38th congressional district, redrawn in 2025 to favor Republican performance, positions the GOP nominee as the clear frontrunner heading into the November 2026 general election. Jon Bonck, who leads the Republican primary runoff with a Trump endorsement and substantial fundraising, faces Democratic nominee Melissa McDonough in a seat where recent statewide polling shows a modest Republican edge. The May 26 runoff outcome and subsequent campaign dynamics will shape final positioning, though the district's structural lean keeps Democratic chances limited absent unusual turnout shifts or late developments. Trader consensus reflects these baseline electoral math and historical patterns in similar Texas districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volumen
$16,905Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Texas's 38th congressional district, redrawn in 2025 to favor Republican performance, positions the GOP nominee as the clear frontrunner heading into the November 2026 general election. Jon Bonck, who leads the Republican primary runoff with a Trump endorsement and substantial fundraising, faces Democratic nominee Melissa McDonough in a seat where recent statewide polling shows a modest Republican edge. The May 26 runoff outcome and subsequent campaign dynamics will shape final positioning, though the district's structural lean keeps Democratic chances limited absent unusual turnout shifts or late developments. Trader consensus reflects these baseline electoral math and historical patterns in similar Texas districts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$16,905Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Texas's 38th congressional district, redrawn in 2025 to favor Republican performance, positions the GOP nominee as the clear frontrunner heading into the November 2026 general election. Jon Bonck, who leads the Republican primary runoff with a Trump endorsement and substantial fundraising, faces Democratic nominee Melissa McDonough in a seat where recent statewide polling shows a modest Republican edge. The May 26 runoff outcome and subsequent campaign dynamics will shape final positioning, though the district's structural lean keeps Democratic chances limited absent unusual turnout shifts or late developments. Trader consensus reflects these baseline electoral math and historical patterns in similar Texas districts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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