Democratic incumbent Timothy Kennedy holds a commanding position in New York’s 26th congressional district, reflected in trader consensus around a 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. The seat’s consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, combined with Kennedy’s primary victory in June 2026 and limited Republican opposition following the cancellation of their primary, underpin the current pricing. Forecasters rate the race as safe or solid Democratic, consistent with historical voting patterns and low challenger fundraising. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major scandal involving the incumbent, significant health developments, or an unusually strong national Republican wave that alters turnout in suburban and urban precincts, though such shifts remain low-probability given the district’s structural lean.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes de NY-26
Ganador de las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes de NY-26
$26,198 Vol.
$26,198 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
94%
Partido Republicano
4%
$26,198 Vol.
$26,198 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$14,030 Vol.
94%
Partido Republicano
$12,168 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Timothy Kennedy holds a commanding position in New York’s 26th congressional district, reflected in trader consensus around a 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. The seat’s consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, combined with Kennedy’s primary victory in June 2026 and limited Republican opposition following the cancellation of their primary, underpin the current pricing. Forecasters rate the race as safe or solid Democratic, consistent with historical voting patterns and low challenger fundraising. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major scandal involving the incumbent, significant health developments, or an unusually strong national Republican wave that alters turnout in suburban and urban precincts, though such shifts remain low-probability given the district’s structural lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volumen
$26,198Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Timothy Kennedy holds a commanding position in New York’s 26th congressional district, reflected in trader consensus around a 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. The seat’s consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, combined with Kennedy’s primary victory in June 2026 and limited Republican opposition following the cancellation of their primary, underpin the current pricing. Forecasters rate the race as safe or solid Democratic, consistent with historical voting patterns and low challenger fundraising. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major scandal involving the incumbent, significant health developments, or an unusually strong national Republican wave that alters turnout in suburban and urban precincts, though such shifts remain low-probability given the district’s structural lean.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-26 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$26,198Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Timothy Kennedy holds a commanding position in New York’s 26th congressional district, reflected in trader consensus around a 93.5% implied probability for the Democratic nominee. The seat’s consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles, combined with Kennedy’s primary victory in June 2026 and limited Republican opposition following the cancellation of their primary, underpin the current pricing. Forecasters rate the race as safe or solid Democratic, consistent with historical voting patterns and low challenger fundraising. Scenarios that could shift odds include a major scandal involving the incumbent, significant health developments, or an unusually strong national Republican wave that alters turnout in suburban and urban precincts, though such shifts remain low-probability given the district’s structural lean.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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