Keiko Fujimori's commanding 99.3% implied probability on Polymarket stems from official ONPE results showing her at 17% with 91.7% of actas counted as of April 15, well ahead of Roberto Sánchez Palomino (12.1%) and Rafael López Aliaga (11.9%) in Peru's fragmented first-round presidential vote held April 12-13. Exit polls and steady partial tallies confirmed her lead amid a 35-candidate field, bolstered by her conservative base and Peru's political instability favoring familiar figures. Logistical delays extended voting and counting, prompting unsubstantiated fraud claims and protests from López Aliaga, but EU observers reported no irregularities. Barring reversals from remaining rural ballots or successful JNE challenges, traders see her securing first place for the June 7 runoff.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoKeiko Fujimori 99.3%
Rafael López Aliaga <1%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino <1%
Vladimir Cerrón <1%
$1,857,228 Vol.
$1,857,228 Vol.
Keiko Fujimori
99%
Rafael López Aliaga
<1%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino
<1%
Vladimir Cerrón
<1%
Fiorella Molinelli
<1%
Carlos Espá
<1%
Yonhy Lescano
<1%
Roberto Chiabra
<1%
José Williams
<1%
Fernando Olivera
<1%
Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
<1%
Marisol Pérez Tello
<1%
Mario Vizcarra
<1%
César Acuña
<1%
José Luna
<1%
Jorge Nieto
<1%
Wolfgang Grozo
<1%
Carlos Álvarez
<1%
Alfonso López Chau
<1%
George Forsyth
<1%
Enrique Valderrama
<1%
Ricardo Belmont
<1%
Mesías Guevara
<1%
Keiko Fujimori 99.3%
Rafael López Aliaga <1%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino <1%
Vladimir Cerrón <1%
$1,857,228 Vol.
$1,857,228 Vol.
Keiko Fujimori
99%
Rafael López Aliaga
<1%
Roberto Sánchez Palomino
<1%
Vladimir Cerrón
<1%
Fiorella Molinelli
<1%
Carlos Espá
<1%
Yonhy Lescano
<1%
Roberto Chiabra
<1%
José Williams
<1%
Fernando Olivera
<1%
Rafael Belaúnde Llosa
<1%
Marisol Pérez Tello
<1%
Mario Vizcarra
<1%
César Acuña
<1%
José Luna
<1%
Jorge Nieto
<1%
Wolfgang Grozo
<1%
Carlos Álvarez
<1%
Alfonso López Chau
<1%
George Forsyth
<1%
Enrique Valderrama
<1%
Ricardo Belmont
<1%
Mesías Guevara
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Mercado abierto: Mar 20, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Keiko Fujimori's commanding 99.3% implied probability on Polymarket stems from official ONPE results showing her at 17% with 91.7% of actas counted as of April 15, well ahead of Roberto Sánchez Palomino (12.1%) and Rafael López Aliaga (11.9%) in Peru's fragmented first-round presidential vote held April 12-13. Exit polls and steady partial tallies confirmed her lead amid a 35-candidate field, bolstered by her conservative base and Peru's political instability favoring familiar figures. Logistical delays extended voting and counting, prompting unsubstantiated fraud claims and protests from López Aliaga, but EU observers reported no irregularities. Barring reversals from remaining rural ballots or successful JNE challenges, traders see her securing first place for the June 7 runoff.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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