Russia’s Supreme Court removed Yabloko from the September 2026 State Duma ballot on August 10 after a challenge by Rodina, overturning its earlier Central Election Commission registration. The party, which last cleared the 5% proportional-representation threshold in 1999 and received roughly 1.2% in 2021, has faced repeated candidate disqualifications, foreign-agent designations, and administrative barriers that limit media access and regional campaigning. Independent polling placed its support in the low single digits nationally despite stronger readings in Moscow and among younger voters. With the election less than six weeks away and an appeal considered unlikely to succeed before voting begins, traders assign overwhelming probability to Yabloko falling short of the threshold. A successful last-minute reversal restoring ballot access remains the primary, though remote, pathway that could still alter the outcome.