Recent U.S. Drought Monitor data valid August 25, 2026, show exceptional (D4) drought covering roughly 1.5% of the contiguous United States, concentrated in western Nebraska, parts of Colorado, northeastern Oregon, southern Idaho, and expanding pockets of the interior West and South. Persistent heat domes and below-normal precipitation have driven rapid D3-to-D4 degradation in these regions over recent weeks, while soil moisture, streamflow, and groundwater deficits continue to intensify. A strong El Niño is expected to influence fall patterns, potentially favoring persistence or expansion in the Northwest and Northern Plains but relief farther south. The next USDM update, released around September 3 and reflecting conditions through September 1, will determine market resolution; the Climate Prediction Center’s seasonal outlook follows on September 17.