Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a decline in President Trump's approval rating this week at 72% implied probability for "Down," driven by fresh polling data revealing record lows amid the protracted Iran war and surging fuel prices. Recent Reuters/Ipsos and Fox News polls ending March 24-26 show approval dipping to 36-42%, with disapproval hitting all-time highs even among Republicans, as economic concerns intensify—Trump's handling of prices now nets -39 in some surveys. The conflict, entering its second month without de-escalation signals, has eroded support through rapidly rising gas costs and fears of broader economic fallout, outweighing any countervailing factors in the wisdom-of-crowds pricing ahead of potential midterm impacts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoUp
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
Up
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 3, 2026, than on March 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on March 27, 2026, than on April 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a decline in President Trump's approval rating this week at 72% implied probability for "Down," driven by fresh polling data revealing record lows amid the protracted Iran war and surging fuel prices. Recent Reuters/Ipsos and Fox News polls ending March 24-26 show approval dipping to 36-42%, with disapproval hitting all-time highs even among Republicans, as economic concerns intensify—Trump's handling of prices now nets -39 in some surveys. The conflict, entering its second month without de-escalation signals, has eroded support through rapidly rising gas costs and fears of broader economic fallout, outweighing any countervailing factors in the wisdom-of-crowds pricing ahead of potential midterm impacts.
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 3, 2026, than on March 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on March 27, 2026, than on April 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on March 27, 2026, than on April 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado abierto: Mar 27, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Volumen
$352Fecha de finalización
Apr 4, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 27, 2026, 11:14 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 3, 2026, than on March 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on March 27, 2026, than on April 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a decline in President Trump's approval rating this week at 72% implied probability for "Down," driven by fresh polling data revealing record lows amid the protracted Iran war and surging fuel prices. Recent Reuters/Ipsos and Fox News polls ending March 24-26 show approval dipping to 36-42%, with disapproval hitting all-time highs even among Republicans, as economic concerns intensify—Trump's handling of prices now nets -39 in some surveys. The conflict, entering its second month without de-escalation signals, has eroded support through rapidly rising gas costs and fears of broader economic fallout, outweighing any countervailing factors in the wisdom-of-crowds pricing ahead of potential midterm impacts.
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on April 3, 2026, than on March 27, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on March 27, 2026, than on April 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on March 27, 2026, than on April 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date.
The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date.
If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead.
This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used.
The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$352Fecha de finalización
Apr 4, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 27, 2026, 11:14 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a decline in President Trump's approval rating this week at 72% implied probability for "Down," driven by fresh polling data revealing record lows amid the protracted Iran war and surging fuel prices. Recent Reuters/Ipsos and Fox News polls ending March 24-26 show approval dipping to 36-42%, with disapproval hitting all-time highs even among Republicans, as economic concerns intensify—Trump's handling of prices now nets -39 in some surveys. The conflict, entering its second month without de-escalation signals, has eroded support through rapidly rising gas costs and fears of broader economic fallout, outweighing any countervailing factors in the wisdom-of-crowds pricing ahead of potential midterm impacts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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