**Trader consensus currently centers on the 50–74 tornado range (53.5% implied probability) for September 2026, narrowly ahead of 75–124 (46.0%), reflecting expectations of a modestly above-average but not exceptional month.** As of mid-September, preliminary Storm Prediction Center counts stand near 28 confirmed or reported tornadoes, consistent with early-month activity from frontal boundaries that produced roughly ten surveyed paths and multiple warnings. September climatology averages 66 tornadoes nationally, with activity typically declining as the jet stream weakens and instability drops. Late-month ridging and marginal severe-weather outlooks have kept recent threats low, limiting additional contributions from tropical remnants or strong shear. With only days remaining, further counts hinge on any final frontal passages; absent major outbreaks, totals are likely to settle in the middle of the leading buckets rather than extremes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoTornados en Estados Unidos en septiembre de 2026
Tornados en Estados Unidos en septiembre de 2026
50 - 74 54%
75 - 124 46%
25 - 49 40%
Menos de 25 3.2%
NUEVO
NUEVO
14 oct 2026
Menos de 25
3%
25 - 49
40%
50 - 74
54%
75 - 124
46%
125 o más
3%
50 - 74 54%
75 - 124 46%
25 - 49 40%
Menos de 25 3.2%
NUEVO
NUEVO
14 oct 2026
Menos de 25
$50 Vol.
3%
25 - 49
$0 Vol.
40%
50 - 74
$0 Vol.
54%
75 - 124
$22 Vol.
46%
125 o más
$50 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader consensus currently centers on the 50–74 tornado range (53.5% implied probability) for September 2026, narrowly ahead of 75–124 (46.0%), reflecting expectations of a modestly above-average but not exceptional month.**
As of mid-September, preliminary Storm Prediction Center counts stand near 28 confirmed or reported tornadoes, consistent with early-month activity from frontal boundaries that produced roughly ten surveyed paths and multiple warnings. September climatology averages 66 tornadoes nationally, with activity typically declining as the jet stream weakens and instability drops. Late-month ridging and marginal severe-weather outlooks have kept recent threats low, limiting additional contributions from tropical remnants or strong shear. With only days remaining, further counts hinge on any final frontal passages; absent major outbreaks, totals are likely to settle in the middle of the leading buckets rather than extremes.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Mercado abierto: Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET
Volumen
$123Fecha de finalización
14 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader consensus currently centers on the 50–74 tornado range (53.5% implied probability) for September 2026, narrowly ahead of 75–124 (46.0%), reflecting expectations of a modestly above-average but not exceptional month.**
As of mid-September, preliminary Storm Prediction Center counts stand near 28 confirmed or reported tornadoes, consistent with early-month activity from frontal boundaries that produced roughly ten surveyed paths and multiple warnings. September climatology averages 66 tornadoes nationally, with activity typically declining as the jet stream weakens and instability drops. Late-month ridging and marginal severe-weather outlooks have kept recent threats low, limiting additional contributions from tropical remnants or strong shear. With only days remaining, further counts hinge on any final frontal passages; absent major outbreaks, totals are likely to settle in the middle of the leading buckets rather than extremes.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volumen
$123Fecha de finalización
14 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus currently centers on the 50–74 tornado range (53.5% implied probability) for September 2026, narrowly ahead of 75–124 (46.0%), reflecting expectations of a modestly above-average but not exceptional month.** As of mid-September, preliminary Storm Prediction Center counts stand near 28 confirmed or reported tornadoes, consistent with early-month activity from frontal boundaries that produced roughly ten surveyed paths and multiple warnings. September climatology averages 66 tornadoes nationally, with activity typically declining as the jet stream weakens and instability drops. Late-month ridging and marginal severe-weather outlooks have kept recent threats low, limiting additional contributions from tropical remnants or strong shear. With only days remaining, further counts hinge on any final frontal passages; absent major outbreaks, totals are likely to settle in the middle of the leading buckets rather than extremes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes