Recent U.S. trade data show monthly goods and services deficits near $60 billion in early 2026, following the $901 billion annual total recorded for 2025. Tariffs imposed beginning in 2025 have raised import costs and prompted supply-chain shifts that curb some inflows, while the 2025 reconciliation act supports domestic demand and sustains capital goods imports tied to investment trends. Exports have posted modest gains amid dollar depreciation and reduced policy uncertainty, contributing to expectations of limited narrowing from prior levels. These dynamics position the 800–900 billion range as the leading outcome in trader assessments, with adjacent brackets capturing uncertainty around the pace of any further adjustment through year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$21,139 Vol.
$21,139 Vol.
28 feb 2027
<500 mil millones
5%
500–600B
6%
600–700B
8%
700–800B
8%
800–900 mil millones
44%
900 mil millones–1 billón
32%
1T–1,1T
5%
1,1 billones+
4%
$21,139 Vol.
$21,139 Vol.
28 feb 2027
<500 mil millones
$16,691 Vol.
5%
500–600B
$413 Vol.
6%
600–700B
$505 Vol.
8%
700–800B
$456 Vol.
8%
800–900 mil millones
$1,008 Vol.
44%
900 mil millones–1 billón
$984 Vol.
32%
1T–1,1T
$447 Vol.
5%
1,1 billones+
$635 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data show monthly goods and services deficits near $60 billion in early 2026, following the $901 billion annual total recorded for 2025. Tariffs imposed beginning in 2025 have raised import costs and prompted supply-chain shifts that curb some inflows, while the 2025 reconciliation act supports domestic demand and sustains capital goods imports tied to investment trends. Exports have posted modest gains amid dollar depreciation and reduced policy uncertainty, contributing to expectations of limited narrowing from prior levels. These dynamics position the 800–900 billion range as the leading outcome in trader assessments, with adjacent brackets capturing uncertainty around the pace of any further adjustment through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$21,139Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. trade data show monthly goods and services deficits near $60 billion in early 2026, following the $901 billion annual total recorded for 2025. Tariffs imposed beginning in 2025 have raised import costs and prompted supply-chain shifts that curb some inflows, while the 2025 reconciliation act supports domestic demand and sustains capital goods imports tied to investment trends. Exports have posted modest gains amid dollar depreciation and reduced policy uncertainty, contributing to expectations of limited narrowing from prior levels. These dynamics position the 800–900 billion range as the leading outcome in trader assessments, with adjacent brackets capturing uncertainty around the pace of any further adjustment through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volumen
$21,139Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. trade data show monthly goods and services deficits near $60 billion in early 2026, following the $901 billion annual total recorded for 2025. Tariffs imposed beginning in 2025 have raised import costs and prompted supply-chain shifts that curb some inflows, while the 2025 reconciliation act supports domestic demand and sustains capital goods imports tied to investment trends. Exports have posted modest gains amid dollar depreciation and reduced policy uncertainty, contributing to expectations of limited narrowing from prior levels. These dynamics position the 800–900 billion range as the leading outcome in trader assessments, with adjacent brackets capturing uncertainty around the pace of any further adjustment through year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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