Recent monthly U.S. trade data show the goods-and-services deficit narrowing to $55.9 billion in April 2026, supported by record goods exports in capital goods, petroleum, and industrial supplies amid Middle East energy price spikes. The full-year 2025 deficit settled at $901.5 billion, little changed from 2024 despite broad tariff increases that began in early 2025 and shifted sourcing away from China. Traders price the 800–900 billion range highest because ongoing tariff effects, supply-chain adjustments, and projected export growth in services and energy appear likely to produce only modest further narrowing rather than a sharp contraction. Structural factors including the savings-investment gap and dollar movements continue to limit larger declines, while AI-driven capital-goods imports add upward pressure on the goods side. Resolution depends on the full-year Bureau of Economic Analysis tally.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$21,256 Vol.
$21,256 Vol.
28 feb 2027
<500 mil millones
5%
500–600B
6%
600–700B
10%
700–800B
10%
800–900 mil millones
40%
900 mil millones–1 billón
21%
1T–1,1T
4%
1,1 billones+
4%
$21,256 Vol.
$21,256 Vol.
28 feb 2027
<500 mil millones
$16,808 Vol.
5%
500–600B
$413 Vol.
6%
600–700B
$505 Vol.
10%
700–800B
$456 Vol.
10%
800–900 mil millones
$1,008 Vol.
40%
900 mil millones–1 billón
$984 Vol.
21%
1T–1,1T
$447 Vol.
4%
1,1 billones+
$635 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. trade data show the goods-and-services deficit narrowing to $55.9 billion in April 2026, supported by record goods exports in capital goods, petroleum, and industrial supplies amid Middle East energy price spikes. The full-year 2025 deficit settled at $901.5 billion, little changed from 2024 despite broad tariff increases that began in early 2025 and shifted sourcing away from China. Traders price the 800–900 billion range highest because ongoing tariff effects, supply-chain adjustments, and projected export growth in services and energy appear likely to produce only modest further narrowing rather than a sharp contraction. Structural factors including the savings-investment gap and dollar movements continue to limit larger declines, while AI-driven capital-goods imports add upward pressure on the goods side. Resolution depends on the full-year Bureau of Economic Analysis tally.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$21,256Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. trade data show the goods-and-services deficit narrowing to $55.9 billion in April 2026, supported by record goods exports in capital goods, petroleum, and industrial supplies amid Middle East energy price spikes. The full-year 2025 deficit settled at $901.5 billion, little changed from 2024 despite broad tariff increases that began in early 2025 and shifted sourcing away from China. Traders price the 800–900 billion range highest because ongoing tariff effects, supply-chain adjustments, and projected export growth in services and energy appear likely to produce only modest further narrowing rather than a sharp contraction. Structural factors including the savings-investment gap and dollar movements continue to limit larger declines, while AI-driven capital-goods imports add upward pressure on the goods side. Resolution depends on the full-year Bureau of Economic Analysis tally.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volumen
$21,256Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly U.S. trade data show the goods-and-services deficit narrowing to $55.9 billion in April 2026, supported by record goods exports in capital goods, petroleum, and industrial supplies amid Middle East energy price spikes. The full-year 2025 deficit settled at $901.5 billion, little changed from 2024 despite broad tariff increases that began in early 2025 and shifted sourcing away from China. Traders price the 800–900 billion range highest because ongoing tariff effects, supply-chain adjustments, and projected export growth in services and energy appear likely to produce only modest further narrowing rather than a sharp contraction. Structural factors including the savings-investment gap and dollar movements continue to limit larger declines, while AI-driven capital-goods imports add upward pressure on the goods side. Resolution depends on the full-year Bureau of Economic Analysis tally.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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