**Recent monthly data shows the US goods and services trade deficit running at a narrower pace than in 2025, with April 2026 recording $55.9 billion and March at $60.3 billion, contributing to a 12-month trailing total near $718 billion.** Year-to-date comparisons indicate deficits down roughly 49-55% from the prior year through April, driven by higher exports (including capital goods and energy) and lower imports amid ongoing tariff adjustments. Tariffs implemented since early 2025 have reduced bilateral deficits with China (down 32% year-over-year in 2025) and shifted sourcing patterns, though overall volumes reflect broader macroeconomic factors such as domestic investment needs, AI-related capital goods imports, services surpluses, and the US saving-investment balance. CBO projections anticipate the deficit declining as a share of GDP in 2026, with exports growing faster than imports over the medium term. Trader consensus around the 800–900 billion range aligns with 2025 levels near $901 billion while incorporating expectations for partial narrowing offset by sustained US demand and policy effects through year-end. Key variables include further supply-chain adjustments, energy price movements, and any additional trade measures within the resolution window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$21,261 Vol.
$21,261 Vol.
28 feb 2027
<500 mil millones
5%
500–600B
3%
600–700B
10%
700–800B
10%
800–900 mil millones
38%
900 mil millones–1 billón
16%
1T–1,1T
5%
1,1 billones+
4%
$21,261 Vol.
$21,261 Vol.
28 feb 2027
<500 mil millones
$16,813 Vol.
5%
500–600B
$413 Vol.
3%
600–700B
$505 Vol.
10%
700–800B
$456 Vol.
10%
800–900 mil millones
$1,008 Vol.
38%
900 mil millones–1 billón
$984 Vol.
16%
1T–1,1T
$447 Vol.
5%
1,1 billones+
$635 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.**Recent monthly data shows the US goods and services trade deficit running at a narrower pace than in 2025, with April 2026 recording $55.9 billion and March at $60.3 billion, contributing to a 12-month trailing total near $718 billion.** Year-to-date comparisons indicate deficits down roughly 49-55% from the prior year through April, driven by higher exports (including capital goods and energy) and lower imports amid ongoing tariff adjustments.
Tariffs implemented since early 2025 have reduced bilateral deficits with China (down 32% year-over-year in 2025) and shifted sourcing patterns, though overall volumes reflect broader macroeconomic factors such as domestic investment needs, AI-related capital goods imports, services surpluses, and the US saving-investment balance. CBO projections anticipate the deficit declining as a share of GDP in 2026, with exports growing faster than imports over the medium term.
Trader consensus around the 800–900 billion range aligns with 2025 levels near $901 billion while incorporating expectations for partial narrowing offset by sustained US demand and policy effects through year-end. Key variables include further supply-chain adjustments, energy price movements, and any additional trade measures within the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$21,261Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.**Recent monthly data shows the US goods and services trade deficit running at a narrower pace than in 2025, with April 2026 recording $55.9 billion and March at $60.3 billion, contributing to a 12-month trailing total near $718 billion.** Year-to-date comparisons indicate deficits down roughly 49-55% from the prior year through April, driven by higher exports (including capital goods and energy) and lower imports amid ongoing tariff adjustments.
Tariffs implemented since early 2025 have reduced bilateral deficits with China (down 32% year-over-year in 2025) and shifted sourcing patterns, though overall volumes reflect broader macroeconomic factors such as domestic investment needs, AI-related capital goods imports, services surpluses, and the US saving-investment balance. CBO projections anticipate the deficit declining as a share of GDP in 2026, with exports growing faster than imports over the medium term.
Trader consensus around the 800–900 billion range aligns with 2025 levels near $901 billion while incorporating expectations for partial narrowing offset by sustained US demand and policy effects through year-end. Key variables include further supply-chain adjustments, energy price movements, and any additional trade measures within the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volumen
$21,261Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent monthly data shows the US goods and services trade deficit running at a narrower pace than in 2025, with April 2026 recording $55.9 billion and March at $60.3 billion, contributing to a 12-month trailing total near $718 billion.** Year-to-date comparisons indicate deficits down roughly 49-55% from the prior year through April, driven by higher exports (including capital goods and energy) and lower imports amid ongoing tariff adjustments. Tariffs implemented since early 2025 have reduced bilateral deficits with China (down 32% year-over-year in 2025) and shifted sourcing patterns, though overall volumes reflect broader macroeconomic factors such as domestic investment needs, AI-related capital goods imports, services surpluses, and the US saving-investment balance. CBO projections anticipate the deficit declining as a share of GDP in 2026, with exports growing faster than imports over the medium term. Trader consensus around the 800–900 billion range aligns with 2025 levels near $901 billion while incorporating expectations for partial narrowing offset by sustained US demand and policy effects through year-end. Key variables include further supply-chain adjustments, energy price movements, and any additional trade measures within the resolution window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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