Recent monthly U.S. trade data show the goods-and-services deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with first-half cumulative shortfalls at $371 billion—well below 2025 levels—as import volumes declined after 2025 tariff adjustments normalized and front-loaded purchases faded. Exports of services and select goods held steadier, while the dollar’s path and subdued global demand continue to shape flows. These developments reinforce trader consensus around the 700–900 billion annual range, with the 800–900 billion bucket leading at 42 percent implied probability, as tariff effects and moderating import growth outweigh risks of renewed widening from stronger domestic demand or policy shifts. Upcoming BEA releases through year-end remain key catalysts for any repricing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$24,009 Vol.
$24,009 Vol.
28 feb 2027
<500 mil millones
3%
500–600B
5%
600–700B
9%
700–800B
29%
800–900 mil millones
42%
900 mil millones–1 billón
13%
1T–1,1T
5%
1,1 billones+
5%
$24,009 Vol.
$24,009 Vol.
28 feb 2027
<500 mil millones
$16,848 Vol.
3%
500–600B
$454 Vol.
5%
600–700B
$543 Vol.
9%
700–800B
$670 Vol.
29%
800–900 mil millones
$1,519 Vol.
42%
900 mil millones–1 billón
$1,397 Vol.
13%
1T–1,1T
$1,458 Vol.
5%
1,1 billones+
$1,119 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. trade data show the goods-and-services deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with first-half cumulative shortfalls at $371 billion—well below 2025 levels—as import volumes declined after 2025 tariff adjustments normalized and front-loaded purchases faded. Exports of services and select goods held steadier, while the dollar’s path and subdued global demand continue to shape flows. These developments reinforce trader consensus around the 700–900 billion annual range, with the 800–900 billion bucket leading at 42 percent implied probability, as tariff effects and moderating import growth outweigh risks of renewed widening from stronger domestic demand or policy shifts. Upcoming BEA releases through year-end remain key catalysts for any repricing.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volumen
$24,009Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent monthly U.S. trade data show the goods-and-services deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with first-half cumulative shortfalls at $371 billion—well below 2025 levels—as import volumes declined after 2025 tariff adjustments normalized and front-loaded purchases faded. Exports of services and select goods held steadier, while the dollar’s path and subdued global demand continue to shape flows. These developments reinforce trader consensus around the 700–900 billion annual range, with the 800–900 billion bucket leading at 42 percent implied probability, as tariff effects and moderating import growth outweigh risks of renewed widening from stronger domestic demand or policy shifts. Upcoming BEA releases through year-end remain key catalysts for any repricing.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Volumen
$24,009Fecha de finalización
28 feb 2027Mercado abierto
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent monthly U.S. trade data show the goods-and-services deficit narrowing to $73.3 billion in June 2026 from $77.6 billion in May, with first-half cumulative shortfalls at $371 billion—well below 2025 levels—as import volumes declined after 2025 tariff adjustments normalized and front-loaded purchases faded. Exports of services and select goods held steadier, while the dollar’s path and subdued global demand continue to shape flows. These developments reinforce trader consensus around the 700–900 billion annual range, with the 800–900 billion bucket leading at 42 percent implied probability, as tariff effects and moderating import growth outweigh risks of renewed widening from stronger domestic demand or policy shifts. Upcoming BEA releases through year-end remain key catalysts for any repricing.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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