Utah’s 4th congressional district carries a strongly Republican tilt reflected in its R+14 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Republican Mike Kennedy secured the party nomination with broad delegate support at the convention, while the Democratic primary produced limited opposition from challenger Jonny Larsen. Traders assign the Republican nominee a 90.5 percent implied probability of victory in the November 3 general election, consistent with the district’s structural advantages and the absence of major Democratic investments or polling shifts. A national Democratic wave or unexpected candidate controversy could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in comparably safe seats suggest such reversals remain uncommon.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoUT-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
UT-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$15,043 Vol.
$15,043 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
91%
Partido Demócrata
9%
$15,043 Vol.
$15,043 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$5,494 Vol.
91%
Partido Demócrata
$9,549 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Utah’s 4th congressional district carries a strongly Republican tilt reflected in its R+14 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Republican Mike Kennedy secured the party nomination with broad delegate support at the convention, while the Democratic primary produced limited opposition from challenger Jonny Larsen. Traders assign the Republican nominee a 90.5 percent implied probability of victory in the November 3 general election, consistent with the district’s structural advantages and the absence of major Democratic investments or polling shifts. A national Democratic wave or unexpected candidate controversy could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in comparably safe seats suggest such reversals remain uncommon.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volumen
$15,043Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Utah’s 4th congressional district carries a strongly Republican tilt reflected in its R+14 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Republican Mike Kennedy secured the party nomination with broad delegate support at the convention, while the Democratic primary produced limited opposition from challenger Jonny Larsen. Traders assign the Republican nominee a 90.5 percent implied probability of victory in the November 3 general election, consistent with the district’s structural advantages and the absence of major Democratic investments or polling shifts. A national Democratic wave or unexpected candidate controversy could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in comparably safe seats suggest such reversals remain uncommon.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$15,043Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Utah’s 4th congressional district carries a strongly Republican tilt reflected in its R+14 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit GOP margins in recent cycles. Incumbent Republican Mike Kennedy secured the party nomination with broad delegate support at the convention, while the Democratic primary produced limited opposition from challenger Jonny Larsen. Traders assign the Republican nominee a 90.5 percent implied probability of victory in the November 3 general election, consistent with the district’s structural advantages and the absence of major Democratic investments or polling shifts. A national Democratic wave or unexpected candidate controversy could narrow the gap, though historical patterns in comparably safe seats suggest such reversals remain uncommon.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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