Incumbent Republican Pat Fallon secured his party's nomination easily in the March 2026 primary and faces Democrat Jason Pearce in the November general election for Texas's 4th congressional district. The seat's established Republican lean, reflected in consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles, anchors trader consensus on the GOP outcome near 86 percent. Pearce's primary win produced no subsequent polling shifts or national developments capable of narrowing the gap, leaving probabilities aligned with the district's electoral fundamentals and historical voting patterns. With the general election still months away, no major catalysts have emerged to alter positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoTX-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
TX-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
86%
Partido Demócrata
15%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$1,664 Vol.
86%
Partido Demócrata
$1,842 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Pat Fallon secured his party's nomination easily in the March 2026 primary and faces Democrat Jason Pearce in the November general election for Texas's 4th congressional district. The seat's established Republican lean, reflected in consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles, anchors trader consensus on the GOP outcome near 86 percent. Pearce's primary win produced no subsequent polling shifts or national developments capable of narrowing the gap, leaving probabilities aligned with the district's electoral fundamentals and historical voting patterns. With the general election still months away, no major catalysts have emerged to alter positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volumen
$3,506Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Pat Fallon secured his party's nomination easily in the March 2026 primary and faces Democrat Jason Pearce in the November general election for Texas's 4th congressional district. The seat's established Republican lean, reflected in consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles, anchors trader consensus on the GOP outcome near 86 percent. Pearce's primary win produced no subsequent polling shifts or national developments capable of narrowing the gap, leaving probabilities aligned with the district's electoral fundamentals and historical voting patterns. With the general election still months away, no major catalysts have emerged to alter positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$3,506Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Pat Fallon secured his party's nomination easily in the March 2026 primary and faces Democrat Jason Pearce in the November general election for Texas's 4th congressional district. The seat's established Republican lean, reflected in consistent double-digit margins in prior cycles, anchors trader consensus on the GOP outcome near 86 percent. Pearce's primary win produced no subsequent polling shifts or national developments capable of narrowing the gap, leaving probabilities aligned with the district's electoral fundamentals and historical voting patterns. With the general election still months away, no major catalysts have emerged to alter positioning.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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