Incumbent Republican Pat Fallon, who won reelection with 68 percent in 2024 in this solidly red eastern Texas district, secured his party's nomination in the March primary. The seat's partisan baseline, reflected in Donald Trump's 61 percent performance there that year, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Democrat Jason Pearce advanced from his primary but faces structural headwinds in a district without competitive polling shifts or notable endorsements altering the outlook ahead of the November general election. No major developments in the past month have narrowed the gap.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoTX-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
TX-04 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
86%
Partido Demócrata
15%
NUEVO
NUEVO
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$1,676 Vol.
86%
Partido Demócrata
$1,854 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Pat Fallon, who won reelection with 68 percent in 2024 in this solidly red eastern Texas district, secured his party's nomination in the March primary. The seat's partisan baseline, reflected in Donald Trump's 61 percent performance there that year, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Democrat Jason Pearce advanced from his primary but faces structural headwinds in a district without competitive polling shifts or notable endorsements altering the outlook ahead of the November general election. No major developments in the past month have narrowed the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volumen
$3,530Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Pat Fallon, who won reelection with 68 percent in 2024 in this solidly red eastern Texas district, secured his party's nomination in the March primary. The seat's partisan baseline, reflected in Donald Trump's 61 percent performance there that year, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Democrat Jason Pearce advanced from his primary but faces structural headwinds in a district without competitive polling shifts or notable endorsements altering the outlook ahead of the November general election. No major developments in the past month have narrowed the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$3,530Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Pat Fallon, who won reelection with 68 percent in 2024 in this solidly red eastern Texas district, secured his party's nomination in the March primary. The seat's partisan baseline, reflected in Donald Trump's 61 percent performance there that year, underpins trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee. Democrat Jason Pearce advanced from his primary but faces structural headwinds in a district without competitive polling shifts or notable endorsements altering the outlook ahead of the November general election. No major developments in the past month have narrowed the gap.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes