Recent summit inflation at Kīlauea, tracked by Uēkahuna tiltmeters showing steady positive trends after Episode 52 ended in late July, forms the core driver of trader sentiment for Episode 53 onset. USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory models, incorporating current reinflation rates of several microradians and persistent vent glow, place the most probable window between August 8–12. The near-even split between August 9–10 and 11–12 outcomes reflects minor variations in daily tilt acceleration and model sensitivity to these rates, which can shift timing by a day or two. Low odds for August 8 or earlier align with the absence of rapid escalation so far, while later dates remain possible if inflation slows. Daily HVO tilt and gas updates will refine forecasts within this narrow interval.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuándo comenzará el Episodio 53 de Kīlauea?
¿Cuándo comenzará el Episodio 53 de Kīlauea?
11-12 de agosto 37%
9-10 de agosto 36%
13 de agosto o después 21%
8 de agosto o antes 5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 sep 2026
8 de agosto o antes
5%
9-10 de agosto
36%
11-12 de agosto
37%
13 de agosto o después
21%
11-12 de agosto 37%
9-10 de agosto 36%
13 de agosto o después 21%
8 de agosto o antes 5%
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 sep 2026
8 de agosto o antes
$211 Vol.
5%
9-10 de agosto
$118 Vol.
36%
11-12 de agosto
$87 Vol.
37%
13 de agosto o después
$105 Vol.
21%
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.Recent summit inflation at Kīlauea, tracked by Uēkahuna tiltmeters showing steady positive trends after Episode 52 ended in late July, forms the core driver of trader sentiment for Episode 53 onset. USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory models, incorporating current reinflation rates of several microradians and persistent vent glow, place the most probable window between August 8–12. The near-even split between August 9–10 and 11–12 outcomes reflects minor variations in daily tilt acceleration and model sensitivity to these rates, which can shift timing by a day or two. Low odds for August 8 or earlier align with the absence of rapid escalation so far, while later dates remain possible if inflation slows. Daily HVO tilt and gas updates will refine forecasts within this narrow interval.
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
Volumen
$521Fecha de finalización
1 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messagesResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.Recent summit inflation at Kīlauea, tracked by Uēkahuna tiltmeters showing steady positive trends after Episode 52 ended in late July, forms the core driver of trader sentiment for Episode 53 onset. USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory models, incorporating current reinflation rates of several microradians and persistent vent glow, place the most probable window between August 8–12. The near-even split between August 9–10 and 11–12 outcomes reflects minor variations in daily tilt acceleration and model sensitivity to these rates, which can shift timing by a day or two. Low odds for August 8 or earlier align with the absence of rapid escalation so far, while later dates remain possible if inflation slows. Daily HVO tilt and gas updates will refine forecasts within this narrow interval.
This market resolves based on the date on which Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption at the summit of Kīlauea begins, according to the United States Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory (HVO).
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
"Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes" if Episode 53 has not begun, per the HVO-stated onset date, before 12:00 AM HST August 13, 2026. If Episode 53 has still not begun by 11:59 PM HST August 31, 2026, "Aug 13 or later" resolves "Yes."
Resolution is based on the onset date and time for Episode 53 as stated by HVO in the first Observatory Message or Status Report confirming the episode has begun (e.g., "Episode 53 of the ongoing Halemaʻumaʻu eruption began at [time] on [date]"). The onset date stated in that message determines which bracket resolves "Yes," even if the message itself is published after the onset. Precursory low-level activity that HVO does not designate as the episode onset does not count. If HVO does not designate the next fountaining episode as "Episode 53," the next confirmed Halemaʻumaʻu fountaining episode after Episode 52 will be treated as Episode 53 for resolution purposes.
If HVO states a different onset time in a subsequent report, the most recently stated time governs.
The primary resolution source for this market will be HVO's Observatory Messages (https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messages) and HVO's Kīlauea daily updates; however, a consensus of credible reporting citing HVO may also be used.
Volumen
$521Fecha de finalización
1 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 6, 2026, 12:25 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.usgs.gov/observatories/hvo/observatory-messagesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent summit inflation at Kīlauea, tracked by Uēkahuna tiltmeters showing steady positive trends after Episode 52 ended in late July, forms the core driver of trader sentiment for Episode 53 onset. USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory models, incorporating current reinflation rates of several microradians and persistent vent glow, place the most probable window between August 8–12. The near-even split between August 9–10 and 11–12 outcomes reflects minor variations in daily tilt acceleration and model sensitivity to these rates, which can shift timing by a day or two. Low odds for August 8 or earlier align with the absence of rapid escalation so far, while later dates remain possible if inflation slows. Daily HVO tilt and gas updates will refine forecasts within this narrow interval.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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