Trader sentiment in this multi-outcome market centers on a handful of figures with documented legal exposure or enforcement risks, including former intelligence officials like John Brennan and activists such as Mahmoud Khalil who have faced prior detention or scrutiny. With resolution set for December 31, 2026, the compressed timeline limits opportunities for new indictments or arrests, keeping most individual probabilities modest. Recent developments include continued ICE interior enforcement surges through summer 2026, federal fraud operations yielding thousands of arrests globally, and specific probes tied to prior administration actions or protest-related cases. Congressional oversight sessions and potential DOJ priorities through year-end represent the main near-term catalysts that could shift odds, while structural barriers such as prosecutorial discretion and evidentiary thresholds constrain broader movement. Market pricing reflects crowd assessments of these narrow windows rather than broad predictions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Quién será arrestado antes de 2027?
¿Quién será arrestado antes de 2027?
$417,597 Vol.
Anthony Fauci
10%
John Brennan
20%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
13%
Adam Schiff
4%
Barack Obama
2%
James Comey
8%
Mahmoud Khalil
19%
James Clapper
12%
Letitia James
3%
Hillary Clinton
2%
Bill Clinton
1%
Loretta Lynch
8%
Susan Rice
9%
Candace Owens
7%
Gavin Newsom
3%
Benjamin Netanyahu
5%
John Kerry
1%
Pam Bondi
2%
Tom Homan
7%
Kash Patel
1%
Brandon Johnson
10%
Lisa Cook
3%
Lee Jun-seok
11%
Joe Biden
1%
$417,597 Vol.
Anthony Fauci
$165,423 Vol.
10%
John Brennan
$22,822 Vol.
20%
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
$23,830 Vol.
13%
Adam Schiff
$17,036 Vol.
4%
Barack Obama
$29,681 Vol.
2%
James Comey
$10,841 Vol.
8%
Mahmoud Khalil
$1,385 Vol.
19%
James Clapper
$8,391 Vol.
12%
Letitia James
$3,637 Vol.
3%
Hillary Clinton
$26,360 Vol.
2%
Bill Clinton
$2,889 Vol.
1%
Loretta Lynch
$2,411 Vol.
8%
Susan Rice
$304 Vol.
9%
Candace Owens
$268 Vol.
7%
Gavin Newsom
$39,435 Vol.
3%
Benjamin Netanyahu
$1,949 Vol.
5%
John Kerry
$503 Vol.
1%
Pam Bondi
$2,189 Vol.
2%
Tom Homan
$41,914 Vol.
7%
Kash Patel
$607 Vol.
1%
Brandon Johnson
$3,290 Vol.
10%
Lisa Cook
$4,042 Vol.
3%
Lee Jun-seok
$794 Vol.
11%
Joe Biden
$7,597 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment in this multi-outcome market centers on a handful of figures with documented legal exposure or enforcement risks, including former intelligence officials like John Brennan and activists such as Mahmoud Khalil who have faced prior detention or scrutiny. With resolution set for December 31, 2026, the compressed timeline limits opportunities for new indictments or arrests, keeping most individual probabilities modest. Recent developments include continued ICE interior enforcement surges through summer 2026, federal fraud operations yielding thousands of arrests globally, and specific probes tied to prior administration actions or protest-related cases. Congressional oversight sessions and potential DOJ priorities through year-end represent the main near-term catalysts that could shift odds, while structural barriers such as prosecutorial discretion and evidentiary thresholds constrain broader movement. Market pricing reflects crowd assessments of these narrow windows rather than broad predictions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Volumen
$417,597Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment in this multi-outcome market centers on a handful of figures with documented legal exposure or enforcement risks, including former intelligence officials like John Brennan and activists such as Mahmoud Khalil who have faced prior detention or scrutiny. With resolution set for December 31, 2026, the compressed timeline limits opportunities for new indictments or arrests, keeping most individual probabilities modest. Recent developments include continued ICE interior enforcement surges through summer 2026, federal fraud operations yielding thousands of arrests globally, and specific probes tied to prior administration actions or protest-related cases. Congressional oversight sessions and potential DOJ priorities through year-end represent the main near-term catalysts that could shift odds, while structural barriers such as prosecutorial discretion and evidentiary thresholds constrain broader movement. Market pricing reflects crowd assessments of these narrow windows rather than broad predictions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$417,597Mercado abierto
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment in this multi-outcome market centers on a handful of figures with documented legal exposure or enforcement risks, including former intelligence officials like John Brennan and activists such as Mahmoud Khalil who have faced prior detention or scrutiny. With resolution set for December 31, 2026, the compressed timeline limits opportunities for new indictments or arrests, keeping most individual probabilities modest. Recent developments include continued ICE interior enforcement surges through summer 2026, federal fraud operations yielding thousands of arrests globally, and specific probes tied to prior administration actions or protest-related cases. Congressional oversight sessions and potential DOJ priorities through year-end represent the main near-term catalysts that could shift odds, while structural barriers such as prosecutorial discretion and evidentiary thresholds constrain broader movement. Market pricing reflects crowd assessments of these narrow windows rather than broad predictions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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