US extended deterrence commitments, reinforced through ongoing alliance consultations and nuclear posture reviews, continue to anchor nonproliferation commitments among key partners such as South Korea and Japan. Recent polling shows elevated domestic support in Seoul for an independent capability amid North Korean threats, yet governments maintain NPT adherence and prioritize US security guarantees over unilateral programs. No ally has initiated or advanced an indigenous weapons effort in the past year, with technical timelines, alliance pressures, and diplomatic norms posing substantial barriers. Traders price the low likelihood of acquisition before 2027 accordingly, reflecting the absence of decisive policy shifts or capability milestones.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$51,592 Vol.
$51,592 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$51,592 Vol.
$51,592 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
US extended deterrence commitments, reinforced through ongoing alliance consultations and nuclear posture reviews, continue to anchor nonproliferation commitments among key partners such as South Korea and Japan. Recent polling shows elevated domestic support in Seoul for an independent capability amid North Korean threats, yet governments maintain NPT adherence and prioritize US security guarantees over unilateral programs. No ally has initiated or advanced an indigenous weapons effort in the past year, with technical timelines, alliance pressures, and diplomatic norms posing substantial barriers. Traders price the low likelihood of acquisition before 2027 accordingly, reflecting the absence of decisive policy shifts or capability milestones.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mercado abierto: Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
Volumen
$51,592Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
US extended deterrence commitments, reinforced through ongoing alliance consultations and nuclear posture reviews, continue to anchor nonproliferation commitments among key partners such as South Korea and Japan. Recent polling shows elevated domestic support in Seoul for an independent capability amid North Korean threats, yet governments maintain NPT adherence and prioritize US security guarantees over unilateral programs. No ally has initiated or advanced an indigenous weapons effort in the past year, with technical timelines, alliance pressures, and diplomatic norms posing substantial barriers. Traders price the low likelihood of acquisition before 2027 accordingly, reflecting the absence of decisive policy shifts or capability milestones.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution. Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count. Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Volumen
$51,592Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Nov 13, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US extended deterrence commitments, reinforced through ongoing alliance consultations and nuclear posture reviews, continue to anchor nonproliferation commitments among key partners such as South Korea and Japan. Recent polling shows elevated domestic support in Seoul for an independent capability amid North Korean threats, yet governments maintain NPT adherence and prioritize US security guarantees over unilateral programs. No ally has initiated or advanced an indigenous weapons effort in the past year, with technical timelines, alliance pressures, and diplomatic norms posing substantial barriers. Traders price the low likelihood of acquisition before 2027 accordingly, reflecting the absence of decisive policy shifts or capability milestones.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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