Apple’s established annual smartphone release cadence, with new iPhone models typically announced each September, underpins the 98.3% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders view the company’s supply-chain planning, silicon development timeline, and historical consistency as strong indicators that the next-generation handset—following the expected iPhone 17 in 2025—will reach consumers on schedule. While product timelines can slip due to component shortages or major design overhauls, the probability remains elevated because such disruptions rarely push an entire generation beyond the calendar year. Regulatory pressures, such as antitrust rulings or EU compliance mandates, could influence features or availability but have not historically prevented a full-year release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
98% probabilidad
$173,199 Vol.
$173,199 Vol.
30 dic 2026
Sí
98% probabilidad
$173,199 Vol.
$173,199 Vol.
30 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s established annual smartphone release cadence, with new iPhone models typically announced each September, underpins the 98.3% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders view the company’s supply-chain planning, silicon development timeline, and historical consistency as strong indicators that the next-generation handset—following the expected iPhone 17 in 2025—will reach consumers on schedule. While product timelines can slip due to component shortages or major design overhauls, the probability remains elevated because such disruptions rarely push an entire generation beyond the calendar year. Regulatory pressures, such as antitrust rulings or EU compliance mandates, could influence features or availability but have not historically prevented a full-year release.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volumen
$173,199Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s established annual smartphone release cadence, with new iPhone models typically announced each September, underpins the 98.3% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders view the company’s supply-chain planning, silicon development timeline, and historical consistency as strong indicators that the next-generation handset—following the expected iPhone 17 in 2025—will reach consumers on schedule. While product timelines can slip due to component shortages or major design overhauls, the probability remains elevated because such disruptions rarely push an entire generation beyond the calendar year. Regulatory pressures, such as antitrust rulings or EU compliance mandates, could influence features or availability but have not historically prevented a full-year release.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$173,199Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s established annual smartphone release cadence, with new iPhone models typically announced each September, underpins the 98.3% market-implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders view the company’s supply-chain planning, silicon development timeline, and historical consistency as strong indicators that the next-generation handset—following the expected iPhone 17 in 2025—will reach consumers on schedule. While product timelines can slip due to component shortages or major design overhauls, the probability remains elevated because such disruptions rarely push an entire generation beyond the calendar year. Regulatory pressures, such as antitrust rulings or EU compliance mandates, could influence features or availability but have not historically prevented a full-year release.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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