Apple's long-standing annual release cadence for its flagship smartphones, with the iPhone 17 slated for fall 2025, forms the core driver behind the 97% implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Supply chain signals, component production timelines, and consistent hardware iteration patterns reinforce trader expectations that Apple will maintain its schedule absent major setbacks. While realistic risks like semiconductor delays, regulatory hurdles in the EU or China, or unforeseen technical issues with next-generation chips could still shift timing, historical execution and diversified manufacturing make complete non-release highly unlikely before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$162,401 Vol.
$162,401 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
$162,401 Vol.
$162,401 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing annual release cadence for its flagship smartphones, with the iPhone 17 slated for fall 2025, forms the core driver behind the 97% implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Supply chain signals, component production timelines, and consistent hardware iteration patterns reinforce trader expectations that Apple will maintain its schedule absent major setbacks. While realistic risks like semiconductor delays, regulatory hurdles in the EU or China, or unforeseen technical issues with next-generation chips could still shift timing, historical execution and diversified manufacturing make complete non-release highly unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volumen
$162,401Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing annual release cadence for its flagship smartphones, with the iPhone 17 slated for fall 2025, forms the core driver behind the 97% implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Supply chain signals, component production timelines, and consistent hardware iteration patterns reinforce trader expectations that Apple will maintain its schedule absent major setbacks. While realistic risks like semiconductor delays, regulatory hurdles in the EU or China, or unforeseen technical issues with next-generation chips could still shift timing, historical execution and diversified manufacturing make complete non-release highly unlikely before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$162,401Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's long-standing annual release cadence for its flagship smartphones, with the iPhone 17 slated for fall 2025, forms the core driver behind the 97% implied probability for an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Supply chain signals, component production timelines, and consistent hardware iteration patterns reinforce trader expectations that Apple will maintain its schedule absent major setbacks. While realistic risks like semiconductor delays, regulatory hurdles in the EU or China, or unforeseen technical issues with next-generation chips could still shift timing, historical execution and diversified manufacturing make complete non-release highly unlikely before year-end.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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