Apple's longstanding practice of launching a new flagship iPhone each September underpins the 97% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. The company has maintained this annual cadence for nearly two decades despite supply-chain pressures and component shifts, with iPhone 17 expected in 2025 setting up the next model without disruption. No official statements or credible reports indicate a skipped cycle, major redesign delays, or regulatory hurdles that would alter the timeline. Traders assign such high confidence because historical precedent and current semiconductor production trends strongly favor continuity. Still, extreme events such as widespread foundry outages, new export restrictions on advanced chips, or an unprecedented global crisis could theoretically push the launch into 2027.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
97% probabilidad
$167,258 Vol.
$167,258 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
97% probabilidad
$167,258 Vol.
$167,258 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's longstanding practice of launching a new flagship iPhone each September underpins the 97% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. The company has maintained this annual cadence for nearly two decades despite supply-chain pressures and component shifts, with iPhone 17 expected in 2025 setting up the next model without disruption. No official statements or credible reports indicate a skipped cycle, major redesign delays, or regulatory hurdles that would alter the timeline. Traders assign such high confidence because historical precedent and current semiconductor production trends strongly favor continuity. Still, extreme events such as widespread foundry outages, new export restrictions on advanced chips, or an unprecedented global crisis could theoretically push the launch into 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Volumen
$167,258Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's longstanding practice of launching a new flagship iPhone each September underpins the 97% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. The company has maintained this annual cadence for nearly two decades despite supply-chain pressures and component shifts, with iPhone 17 expected in 2025 setting up the next model without disruption. No official statements or credible reports indicate a skipped cycle, major redesign delays, or regulatory hurdles that would alter the timeline. Traders assign such high confidence because historical precedent and current semiconductor production trends strongly favor continuity. Still, extreme events such as widespread foundry outages, new export restrictions on advanced chips, or an unprecedented global crisis could theoretically push the launch into 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$167,258Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's longstanding practice of launching a new flagship iPhone each September underpins the 97% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. The company has maintained this annual cadence for nearly two decades despite supply-chain pressures and component shifts, with iPhone 17 expected in 2025 setting up the next model without disruption. No official statements or credible reports indicate a skipped cycle, major redesign delays, or regulatory hurdles that would alter the timeline. Traders assign such high confidence because historical precedent and current semiconductor production trends strongly favor continuity. Still, extreme events such as widespread foundry outages, new export restrictions on advanced chips, or an unprecedented global crisis could theoretically push the launch into 2027.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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