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icon for ¿China invadirá Taiwán para el 30 de junio de 2027?

¿China invadirá Taiwán para el 30 de junio de 2027?

icon for ¿China invadirá Taiwán para el 30 de junio de 2027?

¿China invadirá Taiwán para el 30 de junio de 2027?

7% probabilidad
Polymarket

$444,578 Vol.

7% probabilidad
Polymarket

$444,578 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.China maintains sustained military pressure on Taiwan through daily air and naval operations, record coast guard deployments east of the island, and gray-zone tactics such as patrols and surveys, yet shows no signs of imminent full-scale amphibious preparations ahead of the June 2027 horizon. Beijing continues to prioritize economic leverage, diplomatic isolation efforts, and lower-risk coercion over direct invasion, consistent with assessments that the People's Liberation Army still faces significant gaps in joint landing capacity and faces prohibitive costs. Taiwan has responded with enhanced combat readiness drills, cyber defenses, and force modernization, while U.S. evaluations note the absence of any fixed timeline for kinetic unification. These patterns underpin trader consensus that an invasion remains unlikely by the resolution date.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$444,578
Fecha de finalización
1 jul 2027
Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.China maintains sustained military pressure on Taiwan through daily air and naval operations, record coast guard deployments east of the island, and gray-zone tactics such as patrols and surveys, yet shows no signs of imminent full-scale amphibious preparations ahead of the June 2027 horizon. Beijing continues to prioritize economic leverage, diplomatic isolation efforts, and lower-risk coercion over direct invasion, consistent with assessments that the People's Liberation Army still faces significant gaps in joint landing capacity and faces prohibitive costs. Taiwan has responded with enhanced combat readiness drills, cyber defenses, and force modernization, while U.S. evaluations note the absence of any fixed timeline for kinetic unification. These patterns underpin trader consensus that an invasion remains unlikely by the resolution date.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$444,578
Fecha de finalización
1 jul 2027
Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿China invadirá Taiwán para el 30 de junio de 2027?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Invadirá China Taiwán antes del 30 de junio de 2027?" con 7%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 7¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 7% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿China invadirá Taiwán para el 30 de junio de 2027?" ha generado $444.6K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Apr 1, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿China invadirá Taiwán para el 30 de junio de 2027?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

Este es un mercado muy abierto. El líder actual para "¿China invadirá Taiwán para el 30 de junio de 2027?" es "¿Invadirá China Taiwán antes del 30 de junio de 2027?" con solo 7%. Sin ningún resultado con una mayoría clara, los operadores lo ven como altamente incierto, lo que puede presentar oportunidades de trading únicas. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real, así que guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿China invadirá Taiwán para el 30 de junio de 2027?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.