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Geopolítica·China

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

Market icon
Geopolítica·China

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

jun 30

sep 30

dic 31

jun 30, 2027

jun 30

sep 30

dic 31

jun 30, 2027

13% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO
13% probabilidad
Polymarket
NUEVO
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence agencies' March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluded that China lacks current plans for a Taiwan invasion by 2027, preferring unification without force amid ongoing military modernization shortfalls and deterrence from US alliances, anchoring trader consensus at 87.5% for "No." Recent gray-zone pressures persist, including PLA drone deployments near the Taiwan Strait and aircraft intrusions, but no escalatory signals have emerged; Taiwan bolsters Pratas Islands defenses and faces domestic delays in a $40 billion defense budget urged by US lawmakers. Beijing's renewed push via state media and an opposition leader's April visit underscore coercion over conflict, though US Middle East distractions raise vigilance for potential shifts before June 30, 2027 resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$9,173
Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2027
Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence agencies' March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment concluded that China lacks current plans for a Taiwan invasion by 2027, preferring unification without force amid ongoing military modernization shortfalls and deterrence from US alliances, anchoring trader consensus at 87.5% for "No." Recent gray-zone pressures persist, including PLA drone deployments near the Taiwan Strait and aircraft intrusions, but no escalatory signals have emerged; Taiwan bolsters Pratas Islands defenses and faces domestic delays in a $40 billion defense budget urged by US lawmakers. Beijing's renewed push via state media and an opposition leader's April visit underscore coercion over conflict, though US Middle East distractions raise vigilance for potential shifts before June 30, 2027 resolution.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.

The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volumen
$9,173
Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2027
Mercado abierto
Apr 1, 2026, 12:17 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket donde los operadores compran y venden acciones de "Sí" o "No" según si creen que este evento ocurrirá. La probabilidad actual según la comunidad es 13% para "Yes". Por ejemplo, si "Sí" se cotiza a 13¢, el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 13% de que este evento ocurra. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos e información. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Apr 1, 2026. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?", simplemente elige si crees que la respuesta es "Sí" o "No". Cada lado tiene un precio actual que refleja la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si compras acciones de "Sí" y el resultado se resuelve como "Sí", cada acción paga $1. Si se resuelve como "No", tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución para asegurar ganancias o limitar pérdidas.

La probabilidad actual para "Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?" es 13% para "Yes". Esto significa que la comunidad de Polymarket actualmente cree que hay una probabilidad de 13% de que este evento ocurra. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real basándose en operaciones reales, proporcionando una señal continuamente actualizada de lo que el mercado espera.

Las reglas de resolución para "Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.