**Trump’s direct statements and the continuity of U.S. policy strongly anchor trader expectations that formal recognition of Somaliland will not occur before 2027.** In late December 2025, after Israel became the first country to extend recognition, President Trump publicly stated he would not follow suit, responding “just say no” and questioning knowledge of Somaliland. The State Department reaffirmed the longstanding “One Somalia” policy upholding Somalia’s territorial integrity, a position reiterated at the UN Security Council. Since that December 2025 exchange, no official U.S. action, legislation, or diplomatic shift has materialized despite advocacy from figures such as Sen. Ted Cruz and opinion pieces urging recognition on strategic grounds (e.g., countering Chinese influence or securing basing rights). Somaliland’s offers of mineral access and military facilities, alongside competing overtures from Somalia, have not altered the administration’s stance. With roughly four months remaining until the end of 2026 and recognition requiring a formal executive or congressional process that has shown no signs of advancing, the 91.8% implied probability on “No” reflects the absence of any catalyst capable of reversing the stated position in the narrow window.