**Geopolitical escalation in the 2026 Iran conflict has intensified Houthi threats to disrupt or close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key chokepoint handling roughly 4.2 million barrels per day of petroleum liquids in early 2025.** Renewed warnings in April–June 2026, including targeting Israeli-linked vessels, have prompted major carriers like Maersk to pause Red Sea transits, sustaining the shift of Asia-Europe traffic around the Cape of Good Hope and elevating insurance premiums and freight rates. Oil markets price in limited additional upside from Bab el-Mandeb risks given the larger Strait of Hormuz disruption, while shipping volumes through the Suez route remain suppressed versus pre-2024 levels. Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns low near-term probabilities to effective closure, reflecting naval patrols, vessel rerouting flexibility, and historical patterns of asymmetric but contained attacks since the October 2025 ceasefire. Key upcoming catalysts include further Iran-related diplomatic developments or Houthi operational signals that could alter risk premiums.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBab el-Mandeb Strait remains open; market prices settle lower for closure
IMF PortWatch data confirmed that the Bab el-Mandeb Strait transit calls stayed above the closure threshold, leading to market prices settling lower for closure outcomes. The market ultimately resolved to No for effective closure by the end of July.
Dual blockade of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb creates severe global energy shock
December 31 drops to 34%11%
Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz combined with Houthi threats and attacks on Saudi shipping in the Red Sea pushed oil prices higher and disrupted global energy supply chains, impacting market sentiment.
Tanker diversions from Bab el-Mandeb raise oil and insurance risks
December 31 drops to 34%11%
Commercial tankers began rerouting away from Bab el-Mandeb due to Houthi threats, increasing Brent crude prices and freight insurance costs, reflecting market anxiety over potential prolonged disruptions and influencing longer-dated closure odds.
Oil tankers reroute away from Bab el-Mandeb amid blockade and security concerns
Reuters reported that two tankers carrying approximately 2.7 million barrels of Saudi oil diverted course in the Red Sea, avoiding the Bab el-Mandeb Strait due to the Houthi blockade and elevated risk premiums, effectively reducing transit volumes and signaling economic closure of the strait.
Bab el-Mandeb Strait transit calls show modest recovery but remain below pre-crisis levels
September 30 jumps to 28%6%
Data from IMF PortWatch indicated a slight increase in ship arrivals through the strait, reflecting partial recovery from earlier disruptions but still significantly below historical norms, maintaining market caution about closure risks.
Yemen’s Houthi movement warns of maritime blockade targeting Saudi shipping
July 31 drops to 3%9%
On July 22, 2026, the Yemeni Houthi movement issued warnings of a maritime blockade targeting Saudi shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, escalating concerns about potential closure of this key shipping route. This announcement contributed to elevated risk premiums and shipping rerouting decisions.
Bab el-Mandeb Strait faces growing disruption risks amid Houthi blockade
August 31 jumps to 19%7%
The Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a vital shipping route, faces increasing disruption risks after the Houthi maritime blockade declaration, with oil shipments through the strait rising significantly and Saudi crude exports rerouted, raising global energy and trade concerns.
Yemen’s Houthi movement warns of maritime blockade targeting Saudi shipping
December 31 drops to 34%11%
The Houthi movement declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, threatening to disrupt millions of barrels of oil transit through Bab el-Mandeb. This declaration heightened global energy market concerns and contributed to increased market attention on the risk of strait closure.
Houthi blockade raises global trade and energy supply concerns
August 31 jumps to 19%7%
The Houthi blockade of Saudi shipping at Bab el-Mandeb raised fears of wider conflict and disruption to global oil supplies and trade, with the strait being a critical chokepoint for 12% of world trade and a quarter of container traffic to the Suez Canal.
Yemeni Houthis declare naval blockade against Saudi Arabia
December 31 drops to 34%11%
The Yemeni Houthis declared a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, threatening to disrupt over 4.5 million barrels of oil transit through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This declaration intensified market concerns about potential closure and disruption of this critical shipping route.
Saudi-led coalition vows to protect vessels after Houthi blockade announcement
Following the Houthi blockade declaration, the Saudi-led coalition announced it would take necessary measures to protect its commercial vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, signaling potential for military escalation and sustained disruption risks in the strait.
Yemeni Houthis declare naval blockade targeting Saudi shipping
July 31 drops to 4%8%
The Yemeni Houthi movement declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, threatening to disrupt over 4.5 million barrels of oil transit through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This declaration heightened market concerns about a potential effective closure, reflected in increased odds in prediction markets and elevated risk premiums in shipping and energy sectors.
Prediction markets surge on Bab el-Mandeb closure fears amid new blockade
September 30 jumps to 23%10%
On July 21, 2026, prediction markets reflected a surge in odds for Bab el-Mandeb Strait closure following the Houthi naval blockade declaration, as traders assessed the risk to Saudi oil exports and global energy markets, pushing prices for closure outcomes higher.
Bab el-Mandeb blockade threatens global oil and trade routes
September 30 rises to 23%4%
On July 21, 2026, reports confirmed the Houthi blockade's potential to widen the Iran war and disrupt global oil supplies and international trade, emphasizing the strait's vital role in connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Arabia and its importance for Saudi oil exports.
Houthis blockade raises fears over Bab el-Mandeb trade route security
August 31 jumps to 18%7%
Following the blockade declaration, on July 21, 2026, concerns intensified about the security of navigation through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with increased insurance premiums and shipping reroutes. Saudi-led coalition vowed to protect commercial vessels, but the blockade's impact on trade and oil flows remained significant.
Houthis intensify blockade, attacking Saudi oil tankers and disrupting Bab el-Mandeb traffic
July 31 dips to 4%2%
On July 21, 2026, Houthi forces reportedly attacked Saudi oil tankers and issued warnings on maritime frequencies that the Bab el-Mandeb Strait was closed to Saudi shipping. This escalation increased concerns about a prolonged disruption of this vital chokepoint, impacting global oil supply and trade routes, and influencing market prices downward for closure likelihood.
Houthi attacks on oil tankers escalate Red Sea tensions
Iranian-supported Houthi forces reportedly attacked two Saudi oil tankers near Bab el-Mandeb, intensifying fears of a full blockade and causing further market concern about the strait's effective closure, impacting odds for September and December outcomes.
Yemeni Houthis declare naval blockade targeting Saudi shipping in Bab el-Mandeb Strait
September 30 rises to 24%1%
The Yemeni Houthi movement announced a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, threatening to disrupt over 4.5 million barrels of oil transit through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This declaration heightened market fears of closure, pushing up odds temporarily for closure by September 30 and December 31.
Houthi blockade announcement triggers market concerns over Bab el-Mandeb closure
December 31 drops to 33%12%
Following the Houthi declaration of a maritime blockade on Saudi shipping, markets reacted with increased probabilities of Bab el-Mandeb closure, reflecting fears of significant disruption to global trade and energy supplies through this strategic chokepoint.
Houthis announce blockade on Saudi shipping through Bab el-Mandeb Strait
July 31 drops to 3%9%
Yemen’s Houthi rebels declared a blockade on Saudi-linked shipping at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, threatening to widen the Iran conflict and disrupt global oil and trade routes, causing a sharp drop in market odds for closure by July 31 and increased risk premiums for later dates.
US intensifies strikes on Iran amid rising Houthi threats in Bab el-Mandeb region
August 31 jumps to 18%6%
The US conducted multiple strikes on Iranian command centers and missile capabilities, aiming to degrade Iran's ability to threaten maritime traffic, while Houthis prepared attacks near Bab el-Mandeb, increasing regional tensions and market uncertainty.
Shipping volumes through Bab el-Mandeb remain above closure threshold despite tensions
July 31 drops to 5%7%
IMF PortWatch data showed that transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remained above the critical threshold of 10 ships, indicating no effective closure. Market prices for closure probabilities declined slightly as actual transit data contradicted fears of a shutdown.
Houthis declare maritime blockade on Saudi shipping at Bab el-Mandeb Strait
July 31 drops to 6%6%
On July 20, 2026, the Houthi military spokesman announced a maritime blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea, framing it as retaliation for the Saudi siege of Yemen. This declaration led to immediate shipping diversions and heightened fears of a full closure, causing market volatility and a spike in closure risk pricing.
Houthis declare Bab el-Mandeb Strait closed to Saudi shipping amid blockade
July 31 drops to 4%8%
Houthi forces announced a blockade on Saudi oil shipments through Bab el-Mandeb, threatening to disrupt a vital maritime chokepoint and intensifying market fears of effective closure.
Houthis declare maritime blockade of Saudi shipping at Bab el-Mandeb Strait
July 31 drops to 5%7%
On July 20, the Houthis announced a maritime blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, significantly raising the risk of disruption to a vital global trade and energy corridor. This declaration led to immediate rerouting of Saudi oil tankers and increased insurance premiums, suppressing shipping volumes.
Hijacking of commercial vessel near Bab el-Mandeb raises maritime security concerns
An armed hijacking of a commercial vessel near the Yemeni coast heightened security risks in the Bab el-Mandeb area, increasing concerns about maritime safety and potential disruptions to shipping traffic through the strait.
Iran urges Houthis to prepare for Bab el-Mandeb disruption if US targets energy infrastructure
August 31 rises to 12%1%
Iran reportedly instructed its Houthi allies to prepare to disrupt oil tanker traffic through the Red Sea if the US attacks Iran's power grid or energy infrastructure, raising fears of expanded conflict and increased risk to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait's security.
Fighting intensifies around Strait of Hormuz amid diplomatic efforts
September 30 jumps to 23%7%
Fighting around the Strait of Hormuz intensified even as diplomatic channels remained open, raising broader fears of spillover to other regional maritime chokepoints including Bab el-Mandeb. This contributed to elevated risk premiums and market volatility regarding strait closures.
Iran-backed Houthi leader threatens escalation against Saudi Arabia
Reports emerged that the Iran-backed Houthi movement in Yemen threatened escalation with Saudi Arabia, raising fears of maritime route disruptions near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This heightened geopolitical risk led to market repricing of closure probabilities for the strait.
Iran instructs Houthis to close Bab el-Mandeb if US attacks power network
Iran reportedly told Yemen's Houthis to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if the US hits Iran's power network, signaling a direct threat to maritime traffic and escalating closure risk.
Intensified fighting around Strait of Hormuz raises spillover fears
September 30 rises to 16%4%
Fighting around the Strait of Hormuz intensified even as diplomatic channels remained open, heightening fears of spillover effects to other regional maritime chokepoints including Bab el-Mandeb. This contributed to increased market volatility and risk premiums for the strait's closure.
Russian FM Lavrov warns Bab el-Mandeb closure would harm global oil market
September 30 jumps to 19%6%
On July 16, 2026, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov publicly stated that a potential closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would severely harm international trade and the global oil market, underscoring the strait's strategic importance and increasing geopolitical risk awareness.
Iran-backed Houthis threaten escalation near Bab el-Mandeb and Strait of Hormuz
August 31 jumps to 28%8%
On July 16, 2026, reports confirmed that the Iran-backed Houthi movement threatened escalation against Saudi Arabia, raising concerns about security and potential maritime disruptions near Bab el-Mandeb. Fighting around the Strait of Hormuz intensified, increasing fears of spillover to other regional maritime chokepoints, which affected market perceptions of closure risk.
Iran-backed Houthi leader threatens escalation with Saudi Arabia
September 30 dips to 9%2%
On July 16, 2026, reports emerged that the Iran-backed Houthi movement in Yemen threatened escalation against Saudi Arabia, raising concerns about security and potential maritime route disruptions near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This heightened fears of spillover from the Strait of Hormuz conflict, impacting market perceptions of closure risk.
European Commission upgrades import monitoring amid trade imbalance concerns
August 31 drops to 12%5%
The European Commission announced an enhanced import monitoring mechanism on July 15, 2026, adding to the policy backdrop of close monitoring of global trade flows. This announcement contributed to a repricing of near-term closure risk for Bab el-Mandeb, reflecting heightened scrutiny of maritime trade corridors.
Iran threatens to close Bab el-Mandeb Strait using Houthi allies amid US blockade
September 30 dips to 11%2%
Iran threatened to shut off more regional energy exports and signaled it may use its Houthi allies in Yemen to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, opening a new front against the US and escalating risks to two vital maritime chokepoints.
Yemeni Houthis declare naval blockade against Saudi Arabia
August 31 rises to 12%1%
The Yemeni Houthi movement declared a naval blockade targeting Saudi shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, escalating the risk of disruption. This declaration increased market odds for closure as traders factored in the potential impact on maritime traffic and oil transit volumes.
Bab el-Mandeb transit volumes remain suppressed amid ongoing Houthi threats
July 31 drops to 5%7%
IMF PortWatch data showed that ship arrivals through Bab el-Mandeb remained significantly below pre-crisis levels, with daily transit calls fluctuating but not dropping below the critical threshold of 10, indicating no effective closure despite elevated risks.
Yemeni Houthis declare readiness to close Bab el-Mandeb Strait amid Saudi airstrikes
August 31 rises to 12%1%
Following Saudi airstrikes on Sana'a International Airport, Houthi officials declared their readiness to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in retaliation, signaling a potential escalation that could disrupt a vital global shipping route and increase closure odds for August and beyond.
Polymarket trading surges on Bab el-Mandeb closure odds amid new blockade threats
December 31 drops to 37%8%
Following Yemeni Houthis' declaration of a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, prediction markets saw increased trading volume and rising odds of Bab el-Mandeb Strait closure, reflecting market concern over potential disruption of 4.5 million barrels of oil transit daily.
Saudi airstrikes on Sanaa airport escalate Yemen conflict
July 31 drops to 7%5%
Saudi Arabia conducted airstrikes on Sanaa International Airport on July 13, 2026, escalating hostilities with the Houthis. In response, Houthi officials warned of readiness to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, heightening fears of a blockade and impacting market prices for closure probabilities.
Saudi airstrikes on Sana'a International Airport escalate Yemen conflict
August 31 jumps to 20%9%
Saudi Arabia bombed Sana'a International Airport, provoking Yemeni officials to warn of potential closure of Bab el-Mandeb Strait, heightening fears of a dual chokepoint closure with Strait of Hormuz.
Yemeni Houthis announce intent to block Bab el-Mandeb Strait alongside Strait of Hormuz closure
August 31 rises to 12%1%
On July 13, 2026, reports emerged that the Iran-backed Houthi movement in Yemen intended to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait simultaneously with any closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran. This announcement heightened market concerns about a dual maritime chokepoint disruption, impacting the Bab el-Mandeb closure market prices.
Houthis announce intent to block Bab el-Mandeb Strait simultaneously with Hormuz closure
July 31 drops to 6%6%
On July 13, the Yemeni Houthis declared their intention to block the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in coordination with Iran's cessation of passage through the Strait of Hormuz, signaling a potential escalation in maritime disruptions affecting global trade routes.
Final data confirms Bab el-Mandeb Strait remains open with transit calls above closure threshold
September 30 dips to 13%1%
Data published for the end of the analysis window confirmed that the 7-day moving average of transit calls remained above 10, leading to market resolution favoring no closure.
Bab el-Mandeb Strait remains open despite heightened risks
September 30 dips to 13%1%
Despite ongoing threats and disruptions, commercial traffic continued to transit steadily through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, preventing the 7-day moving average of transit calls from falling to closure levels. This stability contributed to the market price settling at a low probability of closure.
Bab el-Mandeb Strait transit calls hit lowest recorded 7-day average
September 30 dips to 14%4%
IMF PortWatch data showed the 7-day moving average of transit calls at Bab el-Mandeb reached a low of 11, the lowest in the analysis window but still above the closure threshold of 10. This reinforced the market's view that the strait was disrupted but not effectively closed.
Transit calls at Bab el-Mandeb Strait reach lowest point but remain above closure threshold
September 30 drops to 14%10%
The 7-day moving average of transit calls dropped to a low of 11, close to the closure threshold, but did not fall to or below 10, keeping the market's closure probability low.
Bab el-Mandeb Strait traffic remains critically low amid blockade fears
September 30 dips to 13%1%
IMF PortWatch data showed transit calls at a low point, reflecting the effective closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait due to ongoing blockades and military threats, confirming market expectations of a near-total shutdown by late June.
Iran signals Houthis to close Bab el-Mandeb if US hits power network
September 30 drops to 17%5%
On June 16, 2026, reports emerged that Iran instructed Yemen's Houthis to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if the US attacks Iran's power network, signaling a potential escalation and raising risk premiums for shipping through the strait. This increased market concern about a possible closure, though no immediate closure occurred.
Houthi threats and regional instability keep Bab el-Mandeb shipping risk high
September 30 drops to 19%9%
Continued Houthi threats and regional conflicts maintained high risk levels for Bab el-Mandeb shipping, preventing normalization of transit calls and sustaining market skepticism about strait closure prospects.
Shipping traffic through Bab el-Mandeb remains open despite threats
September 30 dips to 14%4%
Despite ongoing threats and declarations of blockade by Iran and Houthis, no physical or general closure of Bab el-Mandeb occurred, with shipping continuing at reduced levels. This reality contributed to the market price declining further to 14%, reflecting skepticism about a full closure.
Iran signals Houthis to close Bab el-Mandeb if US attacks power network
September 30 drops to 16%8%
Reports emerged that Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps instructed Yemen's Houthis to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if the US targeted Iranian power infrastructure, raising fears of a new energy chokepoint closure amid ongoing Iran-US tensions. This heightened market risk perceptions for near-term closure, impacting the September 30 outcome odds.
Renewed Houthi threats escalate risk to Bab el-Mandeb Strait amid Iran conflict
September 30 rises to 28%1%
Houthi forces intensified warnings of maritime disruptions targeting Saudi shipping through Bab el-Mandeb, prompting carriers like Maersk to pause Red Sea transits and reroute vessels, increasing insurance costs and freight rates. This heightened risk perception caused market prices for closure probabilities to rise moderately for September 30 outcome.
Iran officially announces closure of Strait of Hormuz and threatens Bab el-Mandeb
September 30 rises to 18%2%
Iran's armed forces declared the Strait of Hormuz closed to all vessels and threatened Bab el-Mandeb closure, striking US ships and causing oil price spikes. Despite the threats, Bab el-Mandeb remained open to general traffic, keeping market prices low around 18%.
Iran announces Strait of Hormuz closure, strikes US ships
September 30 rises to 24%1%
Iran officially closed the Strait of Hormuz and attacked US ships, raising fears of a dual chokepoint crisis including Bab el-Mandeb. This increased market uncertainty but did not confirm Bab el-Mandeb closure, leading to price fluctuations.
Bab el-Mandeb Strait transit calls rise, confirming no closure
September 30 jumps to 28%14%
Mid-June data indicated an increase in ship arrivals, reinforcing market confidence that the strait was not effectively closed, with prices rising from 14% to 28%.
Announcement of closure risks at Bab el-Mandeb Strait causes market uncertainty
September 30 jumps to 23%5%
News of potential closure risks led to a temporary increase in market uncertainty and price volatility, though actual transit data did not confirm closure.
US maritime advisory warns of ongoing Houthi threats in Bab el-Mandeb and Red Sea
September 30 rises to 28%1%
A US maritime advisory highlighted continued threats by the Houthis to commercial shipping in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and surrounding waters, underscoring persistent security risks that contribute to the strait's effective closure and market uncertainty.
U.S. Energy Secretary claims rising Strait of Hormuz traffic despite data
September 30 dips to 13%1%
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was rising significantly, but IMF PortWatch data showed only minimal visible transits, highlighting discrepancies and ongoing disruptions in regional shipping.
US Energy Secretary claims rising Strait of Hormuz traffic despite low data
September 30 jumps to 26%11%
US Energy Secretary Wright stated that commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was rising, but IMF PortWatch data showed only 2 transits, indicating a disconnect between statements and actual shipping activity. This created market skepticism and volatility.
Iran and allies declare Bab el-Mandeb Strait closed to Israeli ships
September 30 jumps to 27%10%
Iran and its allies, including the Houthis, declared the Bab el-Mandeb Strait completely closed to Israeli shipping in solidarity with Lebanon and Iran, signaling a significant escalation in maritime blockade efforts affecting a key global trade route.
Iran declares Bab el-Mandeb closed to Israeli ships
September 30 dips to 14%2%
Iran announced the Bab el-Mandeb Strait was completely closed to Israeli vessels, heightening regional tensions. Despite the declaration, transit data showed continued shipping activity, limiting market impact on closure probability.
Houthis announce total ban on Israeli vessels in Bab el-Mandeb Strait
September 30 jumps to 20%5%
The Houthi movement declared a complete ban on Israeli-linked vessels transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, escalating maritime risks and threatening closure of this key shipping route. This announcement heightened market concerns about strait accessibility, influencing price volatility.
Houthis declare complete closure of Bab el-Mandeb Strait to Israeli ships
September 30 dips to 16%4%
The Houthis announced a total ban on Israeli vessels transiting Bab el-Mandeb, declaring them military targets and effectively closing the strait to Israeli shipping. This declaration increased regional tensions but did not result in a full closure to all traffic, reflected in market prices around 16%.
Houthis renew naval blockade on Israel, close Bab el-Mandeb Strait to Israeli shipping
September 30 jumps to 27%10%
Yemen's Houthi rebels announced a renewed naval blockade targeting Israeli shipping in the Red Sea and declared closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to Israeli vessels, intensifying the maritime security crisis and threatening a critical global shipping route.
Houthis announce total ban on Israeli vessels in Red Sea
September 30 dips to 16%2%
The Houthis declared a complete ban on Israeli-linked vessels transiting the Red Sea, escalating threats to Bab el-Mandeb shipping. This increased risk perception but did not result in actual closure, causing market volatility.
Iran-backed Houthis declare Bab el-Mandeb Strait completely closed to Israeli ships
September 30 drops to 16%5%
The Houthis announced a complete closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to Israeli maritime traffic, escalating the blockade and raising the risk of a full operational shutdown of the strait, which pressured market prices downward.
UNCTAD and IMF PortWatch update on Red Sea shipping disruption impact
September 30 dips to 15%4%
New data highlighted significant declines in shipping transits through the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb, reinforcing the ongoing disruption but not indicating a full closure. This maintained market caution but did not push closure probability higher.
Economic assessments highlight ongoing Red Sea shipping disruption impacts
September 30 dips to 17%2%
Reports from UNCTAD and IMF PortWatch indicated sustained reductions in shipping transits through the Red Sea, including Bab el-Mandeb, reflecting the ongoing impact of regional conflict and security risks on global trade routes and costs.
Red Sea shipping disruption impacts global trade routes and insurance costs
September 30 dips to 17%1%
The ongoing conflict and security issues in the Red Sea region, including Bab el-Mandeb, have led to significant rerouting of shipping traffic around Africa, raising insurance premiums and freight rates, and causing delays in global supply chains.
Houthi rebels announce total ban on Israeli-linked vessels in Bab el-Mandeb Strait
September 30 jumps to 25%5%
The Houthis declared a complete ban on Israeli-linked ships transiting the Bab el-Mandeb, expanding their military targeting and escalating regional tensions. This announcement heightened fears of strait closure, influencing market prices despite no physical closure occurring.
Iran's Revolutionary Guard threatens to close Bab el-Mandeb Strait amid escalating conflict
September 30 jumps to 26%5%
Iran's Revolutionary Guard issued threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait if Israel did not halt strikes in Gaza and Lebanon, raising the risk of a dual chokepoint crisis alongside the Strait of Hormuz and further disrupting global oil supplies.
Israel and Lebanon reach renewed ceasefire agreement
September 30 jumps to 23%7%
A US-mediated ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon aimed to stabilize the region and reduce tensions that could impact Bab el-Mandeb transit. This contributed to a temporary easing of fears about strait closure, reflected in some market price recoveries.
Major carriers suspend Red Sea transits amid ongoing regional conflict
September 30 dips to 15%4%
Continued geopolitical instability and threats in the Bab el-Mandeb region led major shipping companies to maintain suspension of Red Sea transits, reinforcing the diversion of traffic around Africa and contributing to elevated freight costs and market uncertainty.
Iran signals expansion of maritime blockade to Bab el-Mandeb Strait
September 30 jumps to 26%5%
Iran's state-linked Tasnim News Agency reported Tehran and its regional allies considering actions to affect the Bab el-Mandeb Strait after the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, raising fears of a major disruption in global trade and energy supplies.
Iran announces intent to block Bab el-Mandeb Strait alongside Hormuz
September 30 drops to 20%5%
Iran and allied groups declared their determination to completely block the Strait of Hormuz and activate other fronts including Bab el-Mandeb, escalating the threat to maritime traffic. This announcement heightened fears of a full blockade, causing market volatility and a price drop to around 20%.
Iran-backed groups place closure of Bab el-Mandeb Strait on agenda
September 30 dips to 16%3%
Iran and allied militant groups publicly included the complete closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as part of their strategic objectives, heightening fears of a blockade and contributing to market price drops.
Iran halts talks with US, vows to block Bab el-Mandeb Strait
September 30 plunges to 21%29%
Iran's state-linked Tasnim News Agency reported that Iran and its allies resolved to completely block the Strait of Hormuz and activate other fronts including the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, signaling an escalation in maritime disruption threats. This announcement heightened fears of a broader blockade affecting global trade routes.
UKMTO reports explosion near Muscat amid regional maritime tensions
September 30 jumps to 21%7%
An external explosion was reported near Muscat, Oman, increasing regional maritime security concerns and contributing to market volatility around late May. While not directly in Bab el-Mandeb, such incidents heightened fears of broader shipping disruptions affecting the strait.
UKMTO reports tanker explosion near Muscat amid regional tensions
September 30 jumps to 26%5%
An external explosion was reported on a tanker 60NM east of Muscat, Oman, heightening regional maritime security concerns. This incident contributed to market uncertainty about shipping safety and potential strait closure risks.
Houthis prepare contingency plans to close Bab el-Mandeb Strait with Iran
September 30 jumps to 27%6%
Reports emerged that the Houthis were preparing to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in coordination with Iran if the conflict escalated, signaling potential for a full blockade and increasing market concerns about strait accessibility.
Bab el-Mandeb Strait transit calls dip near closure threshold but recover quickly
September 30 drops to 16%5%
Data showed a brief dip in transit calls close to the threshold of 10, causing market concern, but subsequent recovery prevented a closure resolution.
Major container carriers suspend transit through Red Sea amid Houthi attacks
September 30 drops to 16%5%
Shipping giants including Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd suspended transit through the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb due to resumed Houthi attacks, significantly reducing traffic and increasing freight rates and insurance premiums.
Shipping traffic through Bab el-Mandeb Strait falls by more than half amid regional conflict
September 30 drops to 14%6%
Data showed a significant drop in shipping traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with major container carriers suspending transit due to security concerns from Houthi attacks and regional instability. This disruption contributed to increased cargo flows around the Cape of Good Hope and higher freight costs.
Bab el-Mandeb Strait transit calls dip but stay above closure threshold
September 30 drops to 13%7%
Data showed a temporary dip in ship arrivals to near the threshold but still above 10, causing a brief price trough at 13% before rebounding. This indicated continued, though reduced, maritime activity through the strait.
Regional tensions cause temporary transit fluctuations but no closure at Bab el-Mandeb
September 30 dips to 21%3%
Despite spikes in regional conflict, transit data showed fluctuations but did not fall below the closure threshold, leading to market price volatility but no confirmation of closure.
Ethiopia and Eritrea agree to ceasefire in border conflict
September 30 plunges to 14%36%
After months of fighting along their shared border, Ethiopia and Eritrea reached a ceasefire agreement, reducing regional tensions and allowing maritime traffic to resume normal levels through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
U.S. Energy Secretary claims rising traffic at Strait of Hormuz despite data
September 30 rises to 25%4%
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated on CNBC that commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was rising significantly, but IMF PortWatch data showed only minimal transit. This discrepancy affected market confidence in closure risk assessments.
Shipping disruptions raise transport costs and reroute cargo flows
September 30 drops to 20%6%
The ongoing blockade and security risks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and connected routes have led to increased shipping costs and rerouting of cargo flows around Africa, benefiting ports like Lomé but adding travel time and expenses for global trade.
Shipping rerouted around Africa due to Bab el-Mandeb and Hormuz disruptions
September 30 plunges to 24%26%
Major container carriers suspended transit through the Strait of Hormuz and parts of the Red Sea, including Bab el-Mandeb, due to Houthi attacks, causing a significant drop in traffic and rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope. This disruption contributed to the initial market price drop from 50% to 24%.
Reports show Bab el-Mandeb Strait transit calls remain above closure threshold
September 30 plunges to 24%26%
Initial data releases indicated that the 7-day moving average of ship arrivals through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait was above 10, reducing market expectations of an effective closure. This led to a sharp drop in the market price from 50% to 24%.
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions