**Recent FBI execution of search warrants on Eric Swalwell has intensified scrutiny but has not produced charges or an arrest.** On August 15–16, 2026, federal agents seized his iPhone and MacBook Pro at San Francisco International Airport under a warrant tied to a civil rights investigation (18 U.S.C. § 242) linked to sexual misconduct allegations and separately searched his Washington, D.C., residence. Swalwell, who resigned from Congress and exited the California gubernatorial race in April amid the claims, was briefly detained for the device seizure and released; no charges have been filed. Separate probes continue by the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office and Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department. Federal investigations of this type typically involve extended evidence review before any charging decisions, particularly in high-profile cases involving former members of Congress. Traders price the “No” outcome at roughly 81% through September 30 because the recent warrants mark procedural progress without indicating imminent arrest. Historical patterns in similar matters show resolution timelines often extend well beyond short windows, and no public developments—such as indictments, additional raids, or prosecutorial statements—suggest an acceleration within the next six weeks. The market consensus reflects the standard pace of DOJ inquiries rather than any assumption of outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated19% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
19% chance
NEW
NEW
Sep 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent FBI execution of search warrants on Eric Swalwell has intensified scrutiny but has not produced charges or an arrest.** On August 15–16, 2026, federal agents seized his iPhone and MacBook Pro at San Francisco International Airport under a warrant tied to a civil rights investigation (18 U.S.C. § 242) linked to sexual misconduct allegations and separately searched his Washington, D.C., residence. Swalwell, who resigned from Congress and exited the California gubernatorial race in April amid the claims, was briefly detained for the device seizure and released; no charges have been filed. Separate probes continue by the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office and Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department.
Federal investigations of this type typically involve extended evidence review before any charging decisions, particularly in high-profile cases involving former members of Congress. Traders price the “No” outcome at roughly 81% through September 30 because the recent warrants mark procedural progress without indicating imminent arrest. Historical patterns in similar matters show resolution timelines often extend well beyond short windows, and no public developments—such as indictments, additional raids, or prosecutorial statements—suggest an acceleration within the next six weeks. The market consensus reflects the standard pace of DOJ inquiries rather than any assumption of outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 11:48 AM ET
Volume
$22End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:48 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Recent FBI execution of search warrants on Eric Swalwell has intensified scrutiny but has not produced charges or an arrest.** On August 15–16, 2026, federal agents seized his iPhone and MacBook Pro at San Francisco International Airport under a warrant tied to a civil rights investigation (18 U.S.C. § 242) linked to sexual misconduct allegations and separately searched his Washington, D.C., residence. Swalwell, who resigned from Congress and exited the California gubernatorial race in April amid the claims, was briefly detained for the device seizure and released; no charges have been filed. Separate probes continue by the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office and Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department.
Federal investigations of this type typically involve extended evidence review before any charging decisions, particularly in high-profile cases involving former members of Congress. Traders price the “No” outcome at roughly 81% through September 30 because the recent warrants mark procedural progress without indicating imminent arrest. Historical patterns in similar matters show resolution timelines often extend well beyond short windows, and no public developments—such as indictments, additional raids, or prosecutorial statements—suggest an acceleration within the next six weeks. The market consensus reflects the standard pace of DOJ inquiries rather than any assumption of outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Eric Swalwell is arrested or detained by law enforcement between the time of market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$22End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 11:48 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent FBI execution of search warrants on Eric Swalwell has intensified scrutiny but has not produced charges or an arrest.** On August 15–16, 2026, federal agents seized his iPhone and MacBook Pro at San Francisco International Airport under a warrant tied to a civil rights investigation (18 U.S.C. § 242) linked to sexual misconduct allegations and separately searched his Washington, D.C., residence. Swalwell, who resigned from Congress and exited the California gubernatorial race in April amid the claims, was briefly detained for the device seizure and released; no charges have been filed. Separate probes continue by the Manhattan District Attorney’s Office and Los Angeles Sheriff’s Department. Federal investigations of this type typically involve extended evidence review before any charging decisions, particularly in high-profile cases involving former members of Congress. Traders price the “No” outcome at roughly 81% through September 30 because the recent warrants mark procedural progress without indicating imminent arrest. Historical patterns in similar matters show resolution timelines often extend well beyond short windows, and no public developments—such as indictments, additional raids, or prosecutorial statements—suggest an acceleration within the next six weeks. The market consensus reflects the standard pace of DOJ inquiries rather than any assumption of outcome.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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