In the Espírito Santo Senate race for first place, a crowded field of more than ten registered candidates keeps trader probabilities clustered near parity, with no one exceeding 45.5 percent implied odds. Recent party conventions have finalized coalitions and slates ahead of the October vote, while July Quaest polling showed Renato Casagrande (PSB) ahead at 24 percent but with the rest of the pack in single digits. Incumbents Fabiano Contarato and Marcos do Val face re-election challenges alongside strong state-level names such as Sergio Meneguelli and Maguinha Malta. This fragmentation, combined with undecided voters and the mechanics of electing two senators, sustains tight consensus until later polling or campaign momentum can separate contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRenato Casagrande 47%
Rose de Freitas 46%
Rodney Miranda 46%
Sergio Meneguelli 45%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Renato Casagrande
47%
Rose de Freitas
46%
Rodney Miranda
46%
Sergio Meneguelli
45%
Maguinha Malta
45%
Marcos do Val
45%
Fabiano Contarato
44%
Callegari
42%
Leonardo Monjardim
42%
Evair de Melo
41%
Professor Fabian
27%
Renato Casagrande 47%
Rose de Freitas 46%
Rodney Miranda 46%
Sergio Meneguelli 45%
NEW
NEW
Oct 4, 2026
Renato Casagrande
$0 Vol.
47%
Rose de Freitas
$0 Vol.
46%
Rodney Miranda
$0 Vol.
46%
Sergio Meneguelli
$0 Vol.
45%
Maguinha Malta
$0 Vol.
45%
Marcos do Val
$0 Vol.
45%
Fabiano Contarato
$0 Vol.
44%
Callegari
$0 Vol.
42%
Leonardo Monjardim
$0 Vol.
42%
Evair de Melo
$0 Vol.
41%
Professor Fabian
$0 Vol.
27%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).In the Espírito Santo Senate race for first place, a crowded field of more than ten registered candidates keeps trader probabilities clustered near parity, with no one exceeding 45.5 percent implied odds. Recent party conventions have finalized coalitions and slates ahead of the October vote, while July Quaest polling showed Renato Casagrande (PSB) ahead at 24 percent but with the rest of the pack in single digits. Incumbents Fabiano Contarato and Marcos do Val face re-election challenges alongside strong state-level names such as Sergio Meneguelli and Maguinha Malta. This fragmentation, combined with undecided voters and the mechanics of electing two senators, sustains tight consensus until later polling or campaign momentum can separate contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Market Opened: Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).In the Espírito Santo Senate race for first place, a crowded field of more than ten registered candidates keeps trader probabilities clustered near parity, with no one exceeding 45.5 percent implied odds. Recent party conventions have finalized coalitions and slates ahead of the October vote, while July Quaest polling showed Renato Casagrande (PSB) ahead at 24 percent but with the rest of the pack in single digits. Incumbents Fabiano Contarato and Marcos do Val face re-election challenges alongside strong state-level names such as Sergio Meneguelli and Maguinha Malta. This fragmentation, combined with undecided voters and the mechanics of electing two senators, sustains tight consensus until later polling or campaign momentum can separate contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Espírito Santo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Volume
$0End Date
Oct 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 17, 2026, 5:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...In the Espírito Santo Senate race for first place, a crowded field of more than ten registered candidates keeps trader probabilities clustered near parity, with no one exceeding 45.5 percent implied odds. Recent party conventions have finalized coalitions and slates ahead of the October vote, while July Quaest polling showed Renato Casagrande (PSB) ahead at 24 percent but with the rest of the pack in single digits. Incumbents Fabiano Contarato and Marcos do Val face re-election challenges alongside strong state-level names such as Sergio Meneguelli and Maguinha Malta. This fragmentation, combined with undecided voters and the mechanics of electing two senators, sustains tight consensus until later polling or campaign momentum can separate contenders.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions