Hawaii's 2nd congressional district remains a strongly Democratic seat heading into the November 2026 general election, with traders assigning the party a 95.5% implied probability of victory. Incumbent Jill Tokuda secured renomination in the August 8 Democratic primary with over 91% of the vote against limited challengers, reinforcing her position ahead of facing Republican Brenton Awa and minor-party candidates. The district's consistent partisan lean, reflected in Tokuda's prior 66% general-election margin, underpins the current pricing. A realistic shift in odds would require an unprecedented national Republican surge or major local developments capable of overcoming structural advantages in voter registration and turnout patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHI-02 House Election Winner
HI-02 House Election Winner
$63,525 Vol.
$63,525 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
6%
$63,525 Vol.
$63,525 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$43,095 Vol.
96%
Republican Party
$20,430 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii's 2nd congressional district remains a strongly Democratic seat heading into the November 2026 general election, with traders assigning the party a 95.5% implied probability of victory. Incumbent Jill Tokuda secured renomination in the August 8 Democratic primary with over 91% of the vote against limited challengers, reinforcing her position ahead of facing Republican Brenton Awa and minor-party candidates. The district's consistent partisan lean, reflected in Tokuda's prior 66% general-election margin, underpins the current pricing. A realistic shift in odds would require an unprecedented national Republican surge or major local developments capable of overcoming structural advantages in voter registration and turnout patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$63,525End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii's 2nd congressional district remains a strongly Democratic seat heading into the November 2026 general election, with traders assigning the party a 95.5% implied probability of victory. Incumbent Jill Tokuda secured renomination in the August 8 Democratic primary with over 91% of the vote against limited challengers, reinforcing her position ahead of facing Republican Brenton Awa and minor-party candidates. The district's consistent partisan lean, reflected in Tokuda's prior 66% general-election margin, underpins the current pricing. A realistic shift in odds would require an unprecedented national Republican surge or major local developments capable of overcoming structural advantages in voter registration and turnout patterns.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$63,525End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Hawaii's 2nd congressional district remains a strongly Democratic seat heading into the November 2026 general election, with traders assigning the party a 95.5% implied probability of victory. Incumbent Jill Tokuda secured renomination in the August 8 Democratic primary with over 91% of the vote against limited challengers, reinforcing her position ahead of facing Republican Brenton Awa and minor-party candidates. The district's consistent partisan lean, reflected in Tokuda's prior 66% general-election margin, underpins the current pricing. A realistic shift in odds would require an unprecedented national Republican surge or major local developments capable of overcoming structural advantages in voter registration and turnout patterns.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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