Hawaii's 2nd congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+12 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent "Solid Democratic" or "Safe Democratic" ratings from forecasters such as Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda, who recently filed for re-election, faces no notable primary opposition ahead of the August 2026 contest, while Republicans have not won the seat in decades. These structural factors, combined with the district's voting history and limited GOP bench strength, underpin the market's 94.5% consensus on a Democratic outcome for the November 2026 general election. A late-emerging scandal, an unusually large national Republican wave, or an unexpectedly competitive challenger could still shift probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$58,375 Vol.
$58,375 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
95%
共和党
7%
$58,375 Vol.
$58,375 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党
$43,039 Vol.
95%
共和党
$15,336 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii's 2nd congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+12 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent "Solid Democratic" or "Safe Democratic" ratings from forecasters such as Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda, who recently filed for re-election, faces no notable primary opposition ahead of the August 2026 contest, while Republicans have not won the seat in decades. These structural factors, combined with the district's voting history and limited GOP bench strength, underpin the market's 94.5% consensus on a Democratic outcome for the November 2026 general election. A late-emerging scandal, an unusually large national Republican wave, or an unexpectedly competitive challenger could still shift probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
音量
$58,375終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Hawaii's 2nd congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+12 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent "Solid Democratic" or "Safe Democratic" ratings from forecasters such as Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda, who recently filed for re-election, faces no notable primary opposition ahead of the August 2026 contest, while Republicans have not won the seat in decades. These structural factors, combined with the district's voting history and limited GOP bench strength, underpin the market's 94.5% consensus on a Democratic outcome for the November 2026 general election. A late-emerging scandal, an unusually large national Republican wave, or an unexpectedly competitive challenger could still shift probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$58,375終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Hawaii's 2nd congressional district maintains a strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+12 Cook Partisan Voter Index and consistent "Solid Democratic" or "Safe Democratic" ratings from forecasters such as Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Democrat Jill Tokuda, who recently filed for re-election, faces no notable primary opposition ahead of the August 2026 contest, while Republicans have not won the seat in decades. These structural factors, combined with the district's voting history and limited GOP bench strength, underpin the market's 94.5% consensus on a Democratic outcome for the November 2026 general election. A late-emerging scandal, an unusually large national Republican wave, or an unexpectedly competitive challenger could still shift probabilities.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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