Incumbent Ed Case secured the Democratic nomination for Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District in the August 8 primary by defeating progressive challenger Jarrett Keohokalole 60 percent to 36 percent. The Honolulu-centered district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+13 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, underpins the 95.5 percent implied probability for Case in the November 3 general election against Republican nominee Adriel Lam. Forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Democratic, consistent with the 2024 result in which Case won by more than 40 points. Late developments such as a major scandal, significant health issue, or unexpected national political shift could still affect turnout or voter preferences before ballots close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHI-01 House Election Winner
HI-01 House Election Winner
$35,559 Vol.
$35,559 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Ed Case (D)
95%
Adriel Lam (R)
5%
$35,559 Vol.
$35,559 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Ed Case (D)
$15,153 Vol.
95%
Adriel Lam (R)
$20,405 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Ed Case secured the Democratic nomination for Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District in the August 8 primary by defeating progressive challenger Jarrett Keohokalole 60 percent to 36 percent. The Honolulu-centered district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+13 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, underpins the 95.5 percent implied probability for Case in the November 3 general election against Republican nominee Adriel Lam. Forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Democratic, consistent with the 2024 result in which Case won by more than 40 points. Late developments such as a major scandal, significant health issue, or unexpected national political shift could still affect turnout or voter preferences before ballots close.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volume
$35,559End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Ed Case secured the Democratic nomination for Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District in the August 8 primary by defeating progressive challenger Jarrett Keohokalole 60 percent to 36 percent. The Honolulu-centered district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+13 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, underpins the 95.5 percent implied probability for Case in the November 3 general election against Republican nominee Adriel Lam. Forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Democratic, consistent with the 2024 result in which Case won by more than 40 points. Late developments such as a major scandal, significant health issue, or unexpected national political shift could still affect turnout or voter preferences before ballots close.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$35,559End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Ed Case secured the Democratic nomination for Hawaii’s 1st Congressional District in the August 8 primary by defeating progressive challenger Jarrett Keohokalole 60 percent to 36 percent. The Honolulu-centered district’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+13 partisan voting index and consistent double-digit margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, underpins the 95.5 percent implied probability for Case in the November 3 general election against Republican nominee Adriel Lam. Forecasters rate the seat Safe or Solid Democratic, consistent with the 2024 result in which Case won by more than 40 points. Late developments such as a major scandal, significant health issue, or unexpected national political shift could still affect turnout or voter preferences before ballots close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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