New York’s 12th Congressional District, encompassing much of Manhattan, maintains a strong Democratic partisan voting index of D+33 and has delivered Democratic victories exceeding 80 percent in recent cycles. Incumbent Jerry Nadler’s retirement opens the seat for a June 23 Democratic primary featuring a crowded field led by state assembly members Micah Lasher and Alex Bores, yet the winner faces negligible opposition in the November general election. Cook Political Report rates the contest Solid Democratic, underscoring the structural barriers for Republican contenders. Trader consensus at 94.5 percent for Democrats aligns with this baseline, though an unforeseen national shift or primary nominee weakness could narrow margins within the resolution window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur des élections à la Chambre des représentants NY-12
Vainqueur des élections à la Chambre des représentants NY-12
$18,739 Vol.
$18,739 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
95%
Parti républicain
6%
$18,739 Vol.
$18,739 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$16,248 Vol.
95%
Parti républicain
$2,490 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 12th Congressional District, encompassing much of Manhattan, maintains a strong Democratic partisan voting index of D+33 and has delivered Democratic victories exceeding 80 percent in recent cycles. Incumbent Jerry Nadler’s retirement opens the seat for a June 23 Democratic primary featuring a crowded field led by state assembly members Micah Lasher and Alex Bores, yet the winner faces negligible opposition in the November general election. Cook Political Report rates the contest Solid Democratic, underscoring the structural barriers for Republican contenders. Trader consensus at 94.5 percent for Democrats aligns with this baseline, though an unforeseen national shift or primary nominee weakness could narrow margins within the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$18,739Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 12th Congressional District, encompassing much of Manhattan, maintains a strong Democratic partisan voting index of D+33 and has delivered Democratic victories exceeding 80 percent in recent cycles. Incumbent Jerry Nadler’s retirement opens the seat for a June 23 Democratic primary featuring a crowded field led by state assembly members Micah Lasher and Alex Bores, yet the winner faces negligible opposition in the November general election. Cook Political Report rates the contest Solid Democratic, underscoring the structural barriers for Republican contenders. Trader consensus at 94.5 percent for Democrats aligns with this baseline, though an unforeseen national shift or primary nominee weakness could narrow margins within the resolution window.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$18,739Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New York’s 12th Congressional District, encompassing much of Manhattan, maintains a strong Democratic partisan voting index of D+33 and has delivered Democratic victories exceeding 80 percent in recent cycles. Incumbent Jerry Nadler’s retirement opens the seat for a June 23 Democratic primary featuring a crowded field led by state assembly members Micah Lasher and Alex Bores, yet the winner faces negligible opposition in the November general election. Cook Political Report rates the contest Solid Democratic, underscoring the structural barriers for Republican contenders. Trader consensus at 94.5 percent for Democrats aligns with this baseline, though an unforeseen national shift or primary nominee weakness could narrow margins within the resolution window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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