NY-12’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent 70-80% margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Longtime Representative Jerry Nadler’s retirement created an open seat, but the June 2026 Democratic primary produced a clear winner in state Assembly member Micah Lasher, who defeated a crowded field including Alex Bores and Jack Schlossberg. Lasher now faces Republican Caroline Shinkle in the November general election. The district’s urban Manhattan base, limited Republican infrastructure, and fundraising disparities have kept the race noncompetitive on the general-election side. Late developments such as a major scandal affecting the Democratic nominee, sharply depressed turnout, or an unexpected national Republican surge remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-12 House Election Winner
NY-12 House Election Winner
$32,897 Vol.
$32,897 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
99%
Republican Party
<1%
$32,897 Vol.
$32,897 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$17,262 Vol.
99%
Republican Party
$15,635 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).NY-12’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent 70-80% margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Longtime Representative Jerry Nadler’s retirement created an open seat, but the June 2026 Democratic primary produced a clear winner in state Assembly member Micah Lasher, who defeated a crowded field including Alex Bores and Jack Schlossberg. Lasher now faces Republican Caroline Shinkle in the November general election. The district’s urban Manhattan base, limited Republican infrastructure, and fundraising disparities have kept the race noncompetitive on the general-election side. Late developments such as a major scandal affecting the Democratic nominee, sharply depressed turnout, or an unexpected national Republican surge remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$32,897End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).NY-12’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent 70-80% margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Longtime Representative Jerry Nadler’s retirement created an open seat, but the June 2026 Democratic primary produced a clear winner in state Assembly member Micah Lasher, who defeated a crowded field including Alex Bores and Jack Schlossberg. Lasher now faces Republican Caroline Shinkle in the November general election. The district’s urban Manhattan base, limited Republican infrastructure, and fundraising disparities have kept the race noncompetitive on the general-election side. Late developments such as a major scandal affecting the Democratic nominee, sharply depressed turnout, or an unexpected national Republican surge remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,897End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...NY-12’s strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent 70-80% margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles, underpins trader consensus favoring the Democratic nominee. Longtime Representative Jerry Nadler’s retirement created an open seat, but the June 2026 Democratic primary produced a clear winner in state Assembly member Micah Lasher, who defeated a crowded field including Alex Bores and Jack Schlossberg. Lasher now faces Republican Caroline Shinkle in the November general election. The district’s urban Manhattan base, limited Republican infrastructure, and fundraising disparities have kept the race noncompetitive on the general-election side. Late developments such as a major scandal affecting the Democratic nominee, sharply depressed turnout, or an unexpected national Republican surge remain the primary variables that could narrow the gap.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions