Court-ordered redistricting finalized in late 2025 transformed Utah’s 1st Congressional District into a Salt Lake County-centered seat with a D+12 to D+14 partisan baseline, where Kamala Harris would have carried the area by roughly 24 points in 2024. This structural change prompted the prior Republican incumbent to retire or relocate, leaving an open race. Ben McAdams secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary with a clear majority, backed by strong name recognition, over $2 million in fundraising, and a substantial cash advantage heading into the general election. Republican nominee Riley Owen faces the same headwinds with limited resources and no prior elected experience in the district. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that assigns the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability of victory on November 3. Late developments such as a major scandal or extreme turnout swing could theoretically narrow the gap, though the district’s fundamentals make such shifts improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUT-01 House Election Winner
UT-01 House Election Winner
$41,214 Vol.
$41,214 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
4%
$41,214 Vol.
$41,214 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$5,649 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$35,565 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Court-ordered redistricting finalized in late 2025 transformed Utah’s 1st Congressional District into a Salt Lake County-centered seat with a D+12 to D+14 partisan baseline, where Kamala Harris would have carried the area by roughly 24 points in 2024. This structural change prompted the prior Republican incumbent to retire or relocate, leaving an open race. Ben McAdams secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary with a clear majority, backed by strong name recognition, over $2 million in fundraising, and a substantial cash advantage heading into the general election. Republican nominee Riley Owen faces the same headwinds with limited resources and no prior elected experience in the district. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that assigns the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability of victory on November 3. Late developments such as a major scandal or extreme turnout swing could theoretically narrow the gap, though the district’s fundamentals make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ET
Volume
$41,214End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Court-ordered redistricting finalized in late 2025 transformed Utah’s 1st Congressional District into a Salt Lake County-centered seat with a D+12 to D+14 partisan baseline, where Kamala Harris would have carried the area by roughly 24 points in 2024. This structural change prompted the prior Republican incumbent to retire or relocate, leaving an open race. Ben McAdams secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary with a clear majority, backed by strong name recognition, over $2 million in fundraising, and a substantial cash advantage heading into the general election. Republican nominee Riley Owen faces the same headwinds with limited resources and no prior elected experience in the district. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that assigns the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability of victory on November 3. Late developments such as a major scandal or extreme turnout swing could theoretically narrow the gap, though the district’s fundamentals make such shifts improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$41,214End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 1:13 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Court-ordered redistricting finalized in late 2025 transformed Utah’s 1st Congressional District into a Salt Lake County-centered seat with a D+12 to D+14 partisan baseline, where Kamala Harris would have carried the area by roughly 24 points in 2024. This structural change prompted the prior Republican incumbent to retire or relocate, leaving an open race. Ben McAdams secured the Democratic nomination in the June 2026 primary with a clear majority, backed by strong name recognition, over $2 million in fundraising, and a substantial cash advantage heading into the general election. Republican nominee Riley Owen faces the same headwinds with limited resources and no prior elected experience in the district. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, aligning with trader consensus that assigns the Democratic Party a 94.5% implied probability of victory on November 3. Late developments such as a major scandal or extreme turnout swing could theoretically narrow the gap, though the district’s fundamentals make such shifts improbable.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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