Rashida Tlaib secured the Democratic nomination in Michigan’s 12th congressional district primary on August 4, 2026, defeating challengers with roughly 70 percent of the vote. The district, encompassing heavily Democratic areas around Dearborn and Detroit in Wayne and Oakland counties, has delivered consistent large margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. James Hooper is the Republican nominee. Trader consensus at 94.5 percent for the Democratic Party reflects these structural factors and the absence of competitive general-election indicators. Late developments such as a major scandal, unexpected national political realignment, or unusually high turnout shifts could narrow the gap, though historical patterns suggest limited realistic pathways for Republican victory in November 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMI-12 House Election Winner
MI-12 House Election Winner
$33,410 Vol.
$33,410 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
5%
$33,410 Vol.
$33,410 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$21,161 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$12,249 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Rashida Tlaib secured the Democratic nomination in Michigan’s 12th congressional district primary on August 4, 2026, defeating challengers with roughly 70 percent of the vote. The district, encompassing heavily Democratic areas around Dearborn and Detroit in Wayne and Oakland counties, has delivered consistent large margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. James Hooper is the Republican nominee. Trader consensus at 94.5 percent for the Democratic Party reflects these structural factors and the absence of competitive general-election indicators. Late developments such as a major scandal, unexpected national political realignment, or unusually high turnout shifts could narrow the gap, though historical patterns suggest limited realistic pathways for Republican victory in November 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$33,410End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Rashida Tlaib secured the Democratic nomination in Michigan’s 12th congressional district primary on August 4, 2026, defeating challengers with roughly 70 percent of the vote. The district, encompassing heavily Democratic areas around Dearborn and Detroit in Wayne and Oakland counties, has delivered consistent large margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. James Hooper is the Republican nominee. Trader consensus at 94.5 percent for the Democratic Party reflects these structural factors and the absence of competitive general-election indicators. Late developments such as a major scandal, unexpected national political realignment, or unusually high turnout shifts could narrow the gap, though historical patterns suggest limited realistic pathways for Republican victory in November 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$33,410End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Rashida Tlaib secured the Democratic nomination in Michigan’s 12th congressional district primary on August 4, 2026, defeating challengers with roughly 70 percent of the vote. The district, encompassing heavily Democratic areas around Dearborn and Detroit in Wayne and Oakland counties, has delivered consistent large margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles. James Hooper is the Republican nominee. Trader consensus at 94.5 percent for the Democratic Party reflects these structural factors and the absence of competitive general-election indicators. Late developments such as a major scandal, unexpected national political realignment, or unusually high turnout shifts could narrow the gap, though historical patterns suggest limited realistic pathways for Republican victory in November 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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