Incumbent Republican Mike Bost holds a commanding lead in the IL-12 House race, with trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability reflecting the district's R+22 Cook PVI—23rd most Republican nationally—and his consistent general election margins exceeding 60% since 2020, including 74% in 2024. Unopposed primaries on March 17 locked in underfunded Democrat Julie Fortier, who raised just $41,000 through March versus Bost's $1.1 million, underscoring weak opposition in this rural southern Illinois battleground that backed Trump 71%-28% in 2024. Absent polls or recent catalysts, odds remain entrenched; realistic shifts would require a major Bost scandal, health issue, or extraordinary national Democratic wave before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIL-12 House Election Winner
IL-12 House Election Winner
$17,926 Vol.
$17,926 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
5%
$17,926 Vol.
$17,926 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$7,790 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$10,136 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Bost holds a commanding lead in the IL-12 House race, with trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability reflecting the district's R+22 Cook PVI—23rd most Republican nationally—and his consistent general election margins exceeding 60% since 2020, including 74% in 2024. Unopposed primaries on March 17 locked in underfunded Democrat Julie Fortier, who raised just $41,000 through March versus Bost's $1.1 million, underscoring weak opposition in this rural southern Illinois battleground that backed Trump 71%-28% in 2024. Absent polls or recent catalysts, odds remain entrenched; realistic shifts would require a major Bost scandal, health issue, or extraordinary national Democratic wave before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$17,926End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Bost holds a commanding lead in the IL-12 House race, with trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability reflecting the district's R+22 Cook PVI—23rd most Republican nationally—and his consistent general election margins exceeding 60% since 2020, including 74% in 2024. Unopposed primaries on March 17 locked in underfunded Democrat Julie Fortier, who raised just $41,000 through March versus Bost's $1.1 million, underscoring weak opposition in this rural southern Illinois battleground that backed Trump 71%-28% in 2024. Absent polls or recent catalysts, odds remain entrenched; realistic shifts would require a major Bost scandal, health issue, or extraordinary national Democratic wave before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$17,926End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Bost holds a commanding lead in the IL-12 House race, with trader consensus at 93.5% implied probability reflecting the district's R+22 Cook PVI—23rd most Republican nationally—and his consistent general election margins exceeding 60% since 2020, including 74% in 2024. Unopposed primaries on March 17 locked in underfunded Democrat Julie Fortier, who raised just $41,000 through March versus Bost's $1.1 million, underscoring weak opposition in this rural southern Illinois battleground that backed Trump 71%-28% in 2024. Absent polls or recent catalysts, odds remain entrenched; realistic shifts would require a major Bost scandal, health issue, or extraordinary national Democratic wave before the November 3 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions