Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood faces Democrat Paul Nolley in the November 3, 2026, general election for Illinois’s 16th congressional district, a rural northern Illinois seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+11. LaHood advanced unopposed through the March 2026 Republican primary, while Nolley secured the Democratic nomination without opposition. The district’s consistent Republican voting patterns, LaHood’s incumbency and established name recognition, and the absence of competitive challengers or major recent developments have produced strong trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome. A Democratic victory would require an unusually large national midterm swing, a significant local scandal, or polling miscalculation far exceeding historical norms for this solidly Republican district.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIL-16 House Election Winner
IL-16 House Election Winner
$28,809 Vol.
$28,809 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
92%
Democratic Party
8%
$28,809 Vol.
$28,809 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$11,705 Vol.
92%
Democratic Party
$17,104 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood faces Democrat Paul Nolley in the November 3, 2026, general election for Illinois’s 16th congressional district, a rural northern Illinois seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+11. LaHood advanced unopposed through the March 2026 Republican primary, while Nolley secured the Democratic nomination without opposition. The district’s consistent Republican voting patterns, LaHood’s incumbency and established name recognition, and the absence of competitive challengers or major recent developments have produced strong trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome. A Democratic victory would require an unusually large national midterm swing, a significant local scandal, or polling miscalculation far exceeding historical norms for this solidly Republican district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$28,809End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood faces Democrat Paul Nolley in the November 3, 2026, general election for Illinois’s 16th congressional district, a rural northern Illinois seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+11. LaHood advanced unopposed through the March 2026 Republican primary, while Nolley secured the Democratic nomination without opposition. The district’s consistent Republican voting patterns, LaHood’s incumbency and established name recognition, and the absence of competitive challengers or major recent developments have produced strong trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome. A Democratic victory would require an unusually large national midterm swing, a significant local scandal, or polling miscalculation far exceeding historical norms for this solidly Republican district.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$28,809End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Darin LaHood faces Democrat Paul Nolley in the November 3, 2026, general election for Illinois’s 16th congressional district, a rural northern Illinois seat with a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+11. LaHood advanced unopposed through the March 2026 Republican primary, while Nolley secured the Democratic nomination without opposition. The district’s consistent Republican voting patterns, LaHood’s incumbency and established name recognition, and the absence of competitive challengers or major recent developments have produced strong trader consensus favoring the Republican outcome. A Democratic victory would require an unusually large national midterm swing, a significant local scandal, or polling miscalculation far exceeding historical norms for this solidly Republican district.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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