Incumbent Republican Mary Miller faces Democrat Jennifer Todd in the November 2026 general election for Illinois’s 15th congressional district, a rural central Illinois seat stretching from Champaign-Urbana toward the St. Louis suburbs and Quincy. Miller secured the Republican nomination comfortably in the March 2026 primary after winning prior cycles by wide margins, including near-unopposed in 2024. The district’s consistent partisan lean, reflected in ratings such as Solid Republican from the Cook Political Report, underpins trader consensus favoring a Republican hold. Recent developments show no major shifts in candidate positioning, fundraising, or national conditions that would alter the race’s fundamentals. A Democratic victory would require an unusually strong national environment, unexpectedly high turnout shifts, or late developments such as a significant scandal or health issue affecting the incumbent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedIL-15 House Election Winner
IL-15 House Election Winner
$34,293 Vol.
$34,293 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
7%
$34,293 Vol.
$34,293 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$17,306 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$16,987 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mary Miller faces Democrat Jennifer Todd in the November 2026 general election for Illinois’s 15th congressional district, a rural central Illinois seat stretching from Champaign-Urbana toward the St. Louis suburbs and Quincy. Miller secured the Republican nomination comfortably in the March 2026 primary after winning prior cycles by wide margins, including near-unopposed in 2024. The district’s consistent partisan lean, reflected in ratings such as Solid Republican from the Cook Political Report, underpins trader consensus favoring a Republican hold. Recent developments show no major shifts in candidate positioning, fundraising, or national conditions that would alter the race’s fundamentals. A Democratic victory would require an unusually strong national environment, unexpectedly high turnout shifts, or late developments such as a significant scandal or health issue affecting the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$34,293End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mary Miller faces Democrat Jennifer Todd in the November 2026 general election for Illinois’s 15th congressional district, a rural central Illinois seat stretching from Champaign-Urbana toward the St. Louis suburbs and Quincy. Miller secured the Republican nomination comfortably in the March 2026 primary after winning prior cycles by wide margins, including near-unopposed in 2024. The district’s consistent partisan lean, reflected in ratings such as Solid Republican from the Cook Political Report, underpins trader consensus favoring a Republican hold. Recent developments show no major shifts in candidate positioning, fundraising, or national conditions that would alter the race’s fundamentals. A Democratic victory would require an unusually strong national environment, unexpectedly high turnout shifts, or late developments such as a significant scandal or health issue affecting the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$34,293End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mary Miller faces Democrat Jennifer Todd in the November 2026 general election for Illinois’s 15th congressional district, a rural central Illinois seat stretching from Champaign-Urbana toward the St. Louis suburbs and Quincy. Miller secured the Republican nomination comfortably in the March 2026 primary after winning prior cycles by wide margins, including near-unopposed in 2024. The district’s consistent partisan lean, reflected in ratings such as Solid Republican from the Cook Political Report, underpins trader consensus favoring a Republican hold. Recent developments show no major shifts in candidate positioning, fundraising, or national conditions that would alter the race’s fundamentals. A Democratic victory would require an unusually strong national environment, unexpectedly high turnout shifts, or late developments such as a significant scandal or health issue affecting the incumbent.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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