Democratic incumbent John Mannion holds a commanding position in New York’s 22nd congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, reflected in trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee above 92 percent. Redistricting after the prior cycle produced a more favorable partisan balance for Democrats, including a substantial enrollment edge, while Mannion’s 2024 victory and subsequent fundraising dominance have solidified his standing. Republican nominee Kailee Buller, a former USDA chief of staff with no prior elected experience, faces structural headwinds in a district rated solid or safe Democratic by nonpartisan analysts. Late-cycle developments such as an unexpectedly strong national Republican surge, unusually high turnout in Republican-leaning counties, or significant campaign missteps by the incumbent remain the primary pathways that could narrow the margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-22 House Election Winner
NY-22 House Election Winner
$22,086 Vol.
$22,086 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
7%
$22,086 Vol.
$22,086 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$10,827 Vol.
93%
Republican Party
$11,258 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent John Mannion holds a commanding position in New York’s 22nd congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, reflected in trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee above 92 percent. Redistricting after the prior cycle produced a more favorable partisan balance for Democrats, including a substantial enrollment edge, while Mannion’s 2024 victory and subsequent fundraising dominance have solidified his standing. Republican nominee Kailee Buller, a former USDA chief of staff with no prior elected experience, faces structural headwinds in a district rated solid or safe Democratic by nonpartisan analysts. Late-cycle developments such as an unexpectedly strong national Republican surge, unusually high turnout in Republican-leaning counties, or significant campaign missteps by the incumbent remain the primary pathways that could narrow the margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ET
Volume
$22,086End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent John Mannion holds a commanding position in New York’s 22nd congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, reflected in trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee above 92 percent. Redistricting after the prior cycle produced a more favorable partisan balance for Democrats, including a substantial enrollment edge, while Mannion’s 2024 victory and subsequent fundraising dominance have solidified his standing. Republican nominee Kailee Buller, a former USDA chief of staff with no prior elected experience, faces structural headwinds in a district rated solid or safe Democratic by nonpartisan analysts. Late-cycle developments such as an unexpectedly strong national Republican surge, unusually high turnout in Republican-leaning counties, or significant campaign missteps by the incumbent remain the primary pathways that could narrow the margin.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$22,086End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent John Mannion holds a commanding position in New York’s 22nd congressional district ahead of the November 2026 general election, reflected in trader consensus pricing the Democratic nominee above 92 percent. Redistricting after the prior cycle produced a more favorable partisan balance for Democrats, including a substantial enrollment edge, while Mannion’s 2024 victory and subsequent fundraising dominance have solidified his standing. Republican nominee Kailee Buller, a former USDA chief of staff with no prior elected experience, faces structural headwinds in a district rated solid or safe Democratic by nonpartisan analysts. Late-cycle developments such as an unexpectedly strong national Republican surge, unusually high turnout in Republican-leaning counties, or significant campaign missteps by the incumbent remain the primary pathways that could narrow the margin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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