The open seat in New York’s 21st congressional district, following incumbent Elise Stefanik’s decision to pursue the governorship, underpins trader consensus favoring a Republican outcome at 71.5 percent implied probability versus 30.5 percent for Democrats. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+10 and holds solid Republican ratings from nonpartisan forecasters, consistent with its voting patterns in recent presidential and House contests. With both parties holding primaries on June 23 ahead of the November 3 general election, Republican candidates benefit from the structural partisan advantage while Democratic contenders compete in a historically challenging environment. These factors have sustained the current market positioning without major recent shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoGanador de las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes de NY-21
Ganador de las elecciones a la Cámara de Representantes de NY-21
$23,829 Vol.
$23,829 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
68%
Partido Demócrata
23%
$23,829 Vol.
$23,829 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partido Republicano
$13,905 Vol.
68%
Partido Demócrata
$9,924 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in New York’s 21st congressional district, following incumbent Elise Stefanik’s decision to pursue the governorship, underpins trader consensus favoring a Republican outcome at 71.5 percent implied probability versus 30.5 percent for Democrats. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+10 and holds solid Republican ratings from nonpartisan forecasters, consistent with its voting patterns in recent presidential and House contests. With both parties holding primaries on June 23 ahead of the November 3 general election, Republican candidates benefit from the structural partisan advantage while Democratic contenders compete in a historically challenging environment. These factors have sustained the current market positioning without major recent shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volumen
$23,829Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The open seat in New York’s 21st congressional district, following incumbent Elise Stefanik’s decision to pursue the governorship, underpins trader consensus favoring a Republican outcome at 71.5 percent implied probability versus 30.5 percent for Democrats. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+10 and holds solid Republican ratings from nonpartisan forecasters, consistent with its voting patterns in recent presidential and House contests. With both parties holding primaries on June 23 ahead of the November 3 general election, Republican candidates benefit from the structural partisan advantage while Democratic contenders compete in a historically challenging environment. These factors have sustained the current market positioning without major recent shifts.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$23,829Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The open seat in New York’s 21st congressional district, following incumbent Elise Stefanik’s decision to pursue the governorship, underpins trader consensus favoring a Republican outcome at 71.5 percent implied probability versus 30.5 percent for Democrats. The district carries a Cook Partisan Voter Index of R+10 and holds solid Republican ratings from nonpartisan forecasters, consistent with its voting patterns in recent presidential and House contests. With both parties holding primaries on June 23 ahead of the November 3 general election, Republican candidates benefit from the structural partisan advantage while Democratic contenders compete in a historically challenging environment. These factors have sustained the current market positioning without major recent shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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