The Republican nominee holds a 70 percent implied probability in the NY-21 House race primarily because the district carries an R+10 partisan voting index and a Solid Republican rating from the Cook Political Report, reflecting consistent GOP performance in federal contests. Elise Stefanik’s decision not to seek reelection created an open seat, yet the underlying electoral math has kept Democratic chances at 27 percent. Both parties face June 23 primaries—Republicans Anthony Constantino and Robert Smullen, Democrats Blake Gendebien and Stuart Amoriell—with the November 3 general election viewed by traders as favoring the eventual GOP standard-bearer absent major shifts in turnout or national conditions. Strong Republican fundraising, including multimillion-dollar self-funding, further reinforces current positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre des représentants NY-21
Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre des représentants NY-21
$23,829 Vol.
$23,829 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
72%
Parti démocrate
41%
$23,829 Vol.
$23,829 Vol.
3 nov. 2026
Parti républicain
$13,905 Vol.
72%
Parti démocrate
$9,924 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican nominee holds a 70 percent implied probability in the NY-21 House race primarily because the district carries an R+10 partisan voting index and a Solid Republican rating from the Cook Political Report, reflecting consistent GOP performance in federal contests. Elise Stefanik’s decision not to seek reelection created an open seat, yet the underlying electoral math has kept Democratic chances at 27 percent. Both parties face June 23 primaries—Republicans Anthony Constantino and Robert Smullen, Democrats Blake Gendebien and Stuart Amoriell—with the November 3 general election viewed by traders as favoring the eventual GOP standard-bearer absent major shifts in turnout or national conditions. Strong Republican fundraising, including multimillion-dollar self-funding, further reinforces current positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$23,829Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Republican nominee holds a 70 percent implied probability in the NY-21 House race primarily because the district carries an R+10 partisan voting index and a Solid Republican rating from the Cook Political Report, reflecting consistent GOP performance in federal contests. Elise Stefanik’s decision not to seek reelection created an open seat, yet the underlying electoral math has kept Democratic chances at 27 percent. Both parties face June 23 primaries—Republicans Anthony Constantino and Robert Smullen, Democrats Blake Gendebien and Stuart Amoriell—with the November 3 general election viewed by traders as favoring the eventual GOP standard-bearer absent major shifts in turnout or national conditions. Strong Republican fundraising, including multimillion-dollar self-funding, further reinforces current positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$23,829Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Republican nominee holds a 70 percent implied probability in the NY-21 House race primarily because the district carries an R+10 partisan voting index and a Solid Republican rating from the Cook Political Report, reflecting consistent GOP performance in federal contests. Elise Stefanik’s decision not to seek reelection created an open seat, yet the underlying electoral math has kept Democratic chances at 27 percent. Both parties face June 23 primaries—Republicans Anthony Constantino and Robert Smullen, Democrats Blake Gendebien and Stuart Amoriell—with the November 3 general election viewed by traders as favoring the eventual GOP standard-bearer absent major shifts in turnout or national conditions. Strong Republican fundraising, including multimillion-dollar self-funding, further reinforces current positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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