Republican Mike Carey holds an 80.5% implied probability in the OH-15 contest due to the district’s R+5 Cook Partisan Voter Index, his incumbency, and a substantial fundraising lead over Democrat Don Leonard. Both major forecasters rate the seat Likely or Solid Republican, citing the southwestern Columbus suburbs’ structural tilt and Carey’s primary victory. A mid-August poll showed Carey ahead 41-37, with the remainder split among minor candidates and undecided voters. The November 3 general election remains the decisive event, though national midterm dynamics or turnout shifts in the Columbus metro could narrow margins without altering the current trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOH-15 House Election Winner
OH-15 House Election Winner
$10,583 Vol.
$10,583 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
81%
Democratic Party
18%
$10,583 Vol.
$10,583 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$4,609 Vol.
81%
Democratic Party
$5,974 Vol.
18%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican Mike Carey holds an 80.5% implied probability in the OH-15 contest due to the district’s R+5 Cook Partisan Voter Index, his incumbency, and a substantial fundraising lead over Democrat Don Leonard. Both major forecasters rate the seat Likely or Solid Republican, citing the southwestern Columbus suburbs’ structural tilt and Carey’s primary victory. A mid-August poll showed Carey ahead 41-37, with the remainder split among minor candidates and undecided voters. The November 3 general election remains the decisive event, though national midterm dynamics or turnout shifts in the Columbus metro could narrow margins without altering the current trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$10,583End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican Mike Carey holds an 80.5% implied probability in the OH-15 contest due to the district’s R+5 Cook Partisan Voter Index, his incumbency, and a substantial fundraising lead over Democrat Don Leonard. Both major forecasters rate the seat Likely or Solid Republican, citing the southwestern Columbus suburbs’ structural tilt and Carey’s primary victory. A mid-August poll showed Carey ahead 41-37, with the remainder split among minor candidates and undecided voters. The November 3 general election remains the decisive event, though national midterm dynamics or turnout shifts in the Columbus metro could narrow margins without altering the current trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OH-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$10,583End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican Mike Carey holds an 80.5% implied probability in the OH-15 contest due to the district’s R+5 Cook Partisan Voter Index, his incumbency, and a substantial fundraising lead over Democrat Don Leonard. Both major forecasters rate the seat Likely or Solid Republican, citing the southwestern Columbus suburbs’ structural tilt and Carey’s primary victory. A mid-August poll showed Carey ahead 41-37, with the remainder split among minor candidates and undecided voters. The November 3 general election remains the decisive event, though national midterm dynamics or turnout shifts in the Columbus metro could narrow margins without altering the current trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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