Nellie Pou, the Democratic incumbent who won the seat in 2024, benefits from NJ-09’s urban core in Bergen, Hudson, and Passaic counties and its consistent Democratic registration edge. Primary results from June 2026 and updated ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ through July label the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican fundraising and recruitment. These structural factors, combined with the absence of major scandals or shifts in voter turnout patterns since the 2024 cycle, underpin the 89.5% implied probability traders assign to a Democratic hold. A Republican upset would require an unusually strong national environment or unexpected candidate strength that has not materialized in recent polling or filings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNJ-09 House Election Winner
NJ-09 House Election Winner
$20,684 Vol.
$20,684 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
89%
Republican Party
10%
$20,684 Vol.
$20,684 Vol.
Nov 4, 2026
Democratic Party
$10,118 Vol.
89%
Republican Party
$10,566 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Nellie Pou, the Democratic incumbent who won the seat in 2024, benefits from NJ-09’s urban core in Bergen, Hudson, and Passaic counties and its consistent Democratic registration edge. Primary results from June 2026 and updated ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ through July label the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican fundraising and recruitment. These structural factors, combined with the absence of major scandals or shifts in voter turnout patterns since the 2024 cycle, underpin the 89.5% implied probability traders assign to a Democratic hold. A Republican upset would require an unusually strong national environment or unexpected candidate strength that has not materialized in recent polling or filings.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:26 PM ET
Volume
$20,684End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Nellie Pou, the Democratic incumbent who won the seat in 2024, benefits from NJ-09’s urban core in Bergen, Hudson, and Passaic counties and its consistent Democratic registration edge. Primary results from June 2026 and updated ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ through July label the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican fundraising and recruitment. These structural factors, combined with the absence of major scandals or shifts in voter turnout patterns since the 2024 cycle, underpin the 89.5% implied probability traders assign to a Democratic hold. A Republican upset would require an unusually strong national environment or unexpected candidate strength that has not materialized in recent polling or filings.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NJ-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$20,684End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Nellie Pou, the Democratic incumbent who won the seat in 2024, benefits from NJ-09’s urban core in Bergen, Hudson, and Passaic counties and its consistent Democratic registration edge. Primary results from June 2026 and updated ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Decision Desk HQ through July label the race Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting limited Republican fundraising and recruitment. These structural factors, combined with the absence of major scandals or shifts in voter turnout patterns since the 2024 cycle, underpin the 89.5% implied probability traders assign to a Democratic hold. A Republican upset would require an unusually strong national environment or unexpected candidate strength that has not materialized in recent polling or filings.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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