Redistricting through Proposition 50 has transformed California's 41st congressional district into a solidly Democratic seat, with a partisan voting index showing strong Democratic lean and a Cook Political Report rating of Solid D. Incumbent Representative Linda Sánchez, who previously held a portion of the new boundaries, advanced from the June 2, 2026, top-two primary alongside Republican Mitch Clemmons, positioning her for the November 3 general election. Trader consensus reflected in the 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party aligns with the district's voter composition and historical performance in similar safe seats. While an unusually high Democratic margin leaves limited room for shifts, factors such as turnout variations among key voting blocs or late-cycle developments could still influence final results.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
7%
신규
신규
2026.11.03
Democratic Party
$4,873 거래량
93%
Republican Party
$462 거래량
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-41 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting through Proposition 50 has transformed California's 41st congressional district into a solidly Democratic seat, with a partisan voting index showing strong Democratic lean and a Cook Political Report rating of Solid D. Incumbent Representative Linda Sánchez, who previously held a portion of the new boundaries, advanced from the June 2, 2026, top-two primary alongside Republican Mitch Clemmons, positioning her for the November 3 general election. Trader consensus reflected in the 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party aligns with the district's voter composition and historical performance in similar safe seats. While an unusually high Democratic margin leaves limited room for shifts, factors such as turnout variations among key voting blocs or late-cycle developments could still influence final results.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-41 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
마켓 개설일: Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
거래량
$5,335종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-41 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting through Proposition 50 has transformed California's 41st congressional district into a solidly Democratic seat, with a partisan voting index showing strong Democratic lean and a Cook Political Report rating of Solid D. Incumbent Representative Linda Sánchez, who previously held a portion of the new boundaries, advanced from the June 2, 2026, top-two primary alongside Republican Mitch Clemmons, positioning her for the November 3 general election. Trader consensus reflected in the 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party aligns with the district's voter composition and historical performance in similar safe seats. While an unusually high Democratic margin leaves limited room for shifts, factors such as turnout variations among key voting blocs or late-cycle developments could still influence final results.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-41 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
거래량
$5,335종료일
2026.11.03마켓 개설일
Jan 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting through Proposition 50 has transformed California's 41st congressional district into a solidly Democratic seat, with a partisan voting index showing strong Democratic lean and a Cook Political Report rating of Solid D. Incumbent Representative Linda Sánchez, who previously held a portion of the new boundaries, advanced from the June 2, 2026, top-two primary alongside Republican Mitch Clemmons, positioning her for the November 3 general election. Trader consensus reflected in the 92.5% implied probability for the Democratic Party aligns with the district's voter composition and historical performance in similar safe seats. While an unusually high Democratic margin leaves limited room for shifts, factors such as turnout variations among key voting blocs or late-cycle developments could still influence final results.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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