The redrawn boundaries under California's Proposition 50 shifted CA-06 toward a stronger Democratic lean in the Sacramento region, producing consistent race ratings of solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Kevin Kiley, the incumbent running as no party preference after leaving the Republican label, and Richard Pan, the leading Democratic candidate and former state senator, advanced from the June 2 top-two primary. Subsequent polling and nonpartisan forecasts have placed the Democratic nominee ahead, reflecting the district's partisan composition and consolidated Democratic support. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the structural advantages and absence of major late developments that would alter the outlook. A national political reversal, unexpected turnout surge, or significant candidate-specific event could still narrow the margin before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-06 House Election Winner
CA-06 House Election Winner
$50,739 Vol.
$50,739 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
3%
$50,739 Vol.
$50,739 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$25,969 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$24,770 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The redrawn boundaries under California's Proposition 50 shifted CA-06 toward a stronger Democratic lean in the Sacramento region, producing consistent race ratings of solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Kevin Kiley, the incumbent running as no party preference after leaving the Republican label, and Richard Pan, the leading Democratic candidate and former state senator, advanced from the June 2 top-two primary. Subsequent polling and nonpartisan forecasts have placed the Democratic nominee ahead, reflecting the district's partisan composition and consolidated Democratic support. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the structural advantages and absence of major late developments that would alter the outlook. A national political reversal, unexpected turnout surge, or significant candidate-specific event could still narrow the margin before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$50,739End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The redrawn boundaries under California's Proposition 50 shifted CA-06 toward a stronger Democratic lean in the Sacramento region, producing consistent race ratings of solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Kevin Kiley, the incumbent running as no party preference after leaving the Republican label, and Richard Pan, the leading Democratic candidate and former state senator, advanced from the June 2 top-two primary. Subsequent polling and nonpartisan forecasts have placed the Democratic nominee ahead, reflecting the district's partisan composition and consolidated Democratic support. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the structural advantages and absence of major late developments that would alter the outlook. A national political reversal, unexpected turnout surge, or significant candidate-specific event could still narrow the margin before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$50,739End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The redrawn boundaries under California's Proposition 50 shifted CA-06 toward a stronger Democratic lean in the Sacramento region, producing consistent race ratings of solid or safe Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Kevin Kiley, the incumbent running as no party preference after leaving the Republican label, and Richard Pan, the leading Democratic candidate and former state senator, advanced from the June 2 top-two primary. Subsequent polling and nonpartisan forecasts have placed the Democratic nominee ahead, reflecting the district's partisan composition and consolidated Democratic support. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the structural advantages and absence of major late developments that would alter the outlook. A national political reversal, unexpected turnout surge, or significant candidate-specific event could still narrow the margin before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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