California's 6th congressional district features a Democratic-leaning voter base in the Sacramento area, with registration advantages and recent redistricting shifts that favor the party in the November 2026 general election. Independent incumbent Kevin Kiley, who switched from Republican affiliation and previously represented an overlapping seat, advanced alongside Democrat Richard Pan from the June primary; analysts rate the contest Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic based on the district's makeup and limited polling showing Pan competitive or ahead. Trader consensus reflects the structural barriers for Republicans or independents in this environment, including turnout patterns and the broader midterm context. A decisive shift could occur from unusually strong Kiley consolidation of non-Democratic voters, major national political changes before Election Day, or unforeseen candidate developments altering the race dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-06 House Election Winner
CA-06 House Election Winner
$41,810 Vol.
$41,810 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
4%
$41,810 Vol.
$41,810 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$17,992 Vol.
93%
Republican Party
$23,818 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 6th congressional district features a Democratic-leaning voter base in the Sacramento area, with registration advantages and recent redistricting shifts that favor the party in the November 2026 general election. Independent incumbent Kevin Kiley, who switched from Republican affiliation and previously represented an overlapping seat, advanced alongside Democrat Richard Pan from the June primary; analysts rate the contest Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic based on the district's makeup and limited polling showing Pan competitive or ahead. Trader consensus reflects the structural barriers for Republicans or independents in this environment, including turnout patterns and the broader midterm context. A decisive shift could occur from unusually strong Kiley consolidation of non-Democratic voters, major national political changes before Election Day, or unforeseen candidate developments altering the race dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$41,810End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 6th congressional district features a Democratic-leaning voter base in the Sacramento area, with registration advantages and recent redistricting shifts that favor the party in the November 2026 general election. Independent incumbent Kevin Kiley, who switched from Republican affiliation and previously represented an overlapping seat, advanced alongside Democrat Richard Pan from the June primary; analysts rate the contest Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic based on the district's makeup and limited polling showing Pan competitive or ahead. Trader consensus reflects the structural barriers for Republicans or independents in this environment, including turnout patterns and the broader midterm context. A decisive shift could occur from unusually strong Kiley consolidation of non-Democratic voters, major national political changes before Election Day, or unforeseen candidate developments altering the race dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$41,810End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 6th congressional district features a Democratic-leaning voter base in the Sacramento area, with registration advantages and recent redistricting shifts that favor the party in the November 2026 general election. Independent incumbent Kevin Kiley, who switched from Republican affiliation and previously represented an overlapping seat, advanced alongside Democrat Richard Pan from the June primary; analysts rate the contest Solid Democratic or Safe Democratic based on the district's makeup and limited polling showing Pan competitive or ahead. Trader consensus reflects the structural barriers for Republicans or independents in this environment, including turnout patterns and the broader midterm context. A decisive shift could occur from unusually strong Kiley consolidation of non-Democratic voters, major national political changes before Election Day, or unforeseen candidate developments altering the race dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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