California's 7th congressional district features a November 2026 general election matchup between two Democratic candidates—incumbent Doris Matsui and Sacramento City Councilor Mai Vang—who advanced from the June top-two primary under the state's jungle primary rules. This structure eliminates any Republican nominee from the ballot, producing the current trader consensus reflected in the 94.7% implied probability for the Democratic Party outcome. The district's strong Democratic lean, consistent with recent election margins exceeding 30 points, further reinforces expectations of a Democratic hold. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented write-in campaign or successful legal challenge to ballot access, both of which remain remote given historical precedents and filing deadlines already passed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCA-07 House Election Winner
CA-07 House Election Winner
$12,622 Vol.
$12,622 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
3%
$12,622 Vol.
$12,622 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$6,634 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$5,988 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 7th congressional district features a November 2026 general election matchup between two Democratic candidates—incumbent Doris Matsui and Sacramento City Councilor Mai Vang—who advanced from the June top-two primary under the state's jungle primary rules. This structure eliminates any Republican nominee from the ballot, producing the current trader consensus reflected in the 94.7% implied probability for the Democratic Party outcome. The district's strong Democratic lean, consistent with recent election margins exceeding 30 points, further reinforces expectations of a Democratic hold. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented write-in campaign or successful legal challenge to ballot access, both of which remain remote given historical precedents and filing deadlines already passed.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$12,622End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 7th congressional district features a November 2026 general election matchup between two Democratic candidates—incumbent Doris Matsui and Sacramento City Councilor Mai Vang—who advanced from the June top-two primary under the state's jungle primary rules. This structure eliminates any Republican nominee from the ballot, producing the current trader consensus reflected in the 94.7% implied probability for the Democratic Party outcome. The district's strong Democratic lean, consistent with recent election margins exceeding 30 points, further reinforces expectations of a Democratic hold. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented write-in campaign or successful legal challenge to ballot access, both of which remain remote given historical precedents and filing deadlines already passed.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-07 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$12,622End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 7th congressional district features a November 2026 general election matchup between two Democratic candidates—incumbent Doris Matsui and Sacramento City Councilor Mai Vang—who advanced from the June top-two primary under the state's jungle primary rules. This structure eliminates any Republican nominee from the ballot, producing the current trader consensus reflected in the 94.7% implied probability for the Democratic Party outcome. The district's strong Democratic lean, consistent with recent election margins exceeding 30 points, further reinforces expectations of a Democratic hold. A Republican victory would require an unprecedented write-in campaign or successful legal challenge to ballot access, both of which remain remote given historical precedents and filing deadlines already passed.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions