Utah's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt following court-ordered redistricting and the 2024 presidential results, which showed substantial GOP margins in the relevant areas. Incumbent Burgess Owens declined to seek re-election, clearing the path for Republican Mike Kennedy to secure the nomination with minimal primary opposition. Democratic nominee Jonny Larsen advanced through convention processes but faces structural challenges in a district encompassing western Utah counties and suburban portions of Salt Lake and Utah counties. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Republican reflects these baseline partisan dynamics and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals favoring a Democratic upset. Factors that could narrow the gap include an unusually adverse national environment for Republicans, major candidate-specific developments such as health events or ethics issues, or unexpectedly high Democratic turnout in suburban pockets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUT-04 House Election Winner
UT-04 House Election Winner
$32,784 Vol.
$32,784 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
6%
$32,784 Vol.
$32,784 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$15,332 Vol.
94%
Democratic Party
$17,452 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Utah's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt following court-ordered redistricting and the 2024 presidential results, which showed substantial GOP margins in the relevant areas. Incumbent Burgess Owens declined to seek re-election, clearing the path for Republican Mike Kennedy to secure the nomination with minimal primary opposition. Democratic nominee Jonny Larsen advanced through convention processes but faces structural challenges in a district encompassing western Utah counties and suburban portions of Salt Lake and Utah counties. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Republican reflects these baseline partisan dynamics and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals favoring a Democratic upset. Factors that could narrow the gap include an unusually adverse national environment for Republicans, major candidate-specific developments such as health events or ethics issues, or unexpectedly high Democratic turnout in suburban pockets.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$32,784End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Utah's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt following court-ordered redistricting and the 2024 presidential results, which showed substantial GOP margins in the relevant areas. Incumbent Burgess Owens declined to seek re-election, clearing the path for Republican Mike Kennedy to secure the nomination with minimal primary opposition. Democratic nominee Jonny Larsen advanced through convention processes but faces structural challenges in a district encompassing western Utah counties and suburban portions of Salt Lake and Utah counties. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Republican reflects these baseline partisan dynamics and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals favoring a Democratic upset. Factors that could narrow the gap include an unusually adverse national environment for Republicans, major candidate-specific developments such as health events or ethics issues, or unexpectedly high Democratic turnout in suburban pockets.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$32,784End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Utah's 4th congressional district maintains a strong Republican tilt following court-ordered redistricting and the 2024 presidential results, which showed substantial GOP margins in the relevant areas. Incumbent Burgess Owens declined to seek re-election, clearing the path for Republican Mike Kennedy to secure the nomination with minimal primary opposition. Democratic nominee Jonny Larsen advanced through convention processes but faces structural challenges in a district encompassing western Utah counties and suburban portions of Salt Lake and Utah counties. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Republican reflects these baseline partisan dynamics and the absence of competitive polling or fundraising signals favoring a Democratic upset. Factors that could narrow the gap include an unusually adverse national environment for Republicans, major candidate-specific developments such as health events or ethics issues, or unexpectedly high Democratic turnout in suburban pockets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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