New York’s 13th congressional district carries a strongly Democratic Partisan Voter Index of D+32, reflecting consistent large margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles and minimal Republican infrastructure. The June 2026 Democratic primary resolved in favor of Darializa Avila Chevalier, who defeated longtime incumbent Adriano Espaillat, leaving a unified party nominee for the November general election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the absence of a competitive Republican challenger. Trader consensus at 97.3% for the Democratic Party aligns with these structural factors. A late scandal affecting the Democratic nominee or an unforeseen national realignment could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical patterns in the district make such shifts improbable before November 3, 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNY-13 House Election Winner
NY-13 House Election Winner
$39,925 Vol.
$39,925 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
97%
Republican Party
2%
$39,925 Vol.
$39,925 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$27,409 Vol.
97%
Republican Party
$12,516 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 13th congressional district carries a strongly Democratic Partisan Voter Index of D+32, reflecting consistent large margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles and minimal Republican infrastructure. The June 2026 Democratic primary resolved in favor of Darializa Avila Chevalier, who defeated longtime incumbent Adriano Espaillat, leaving a unified party nominee for the November general election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the absence of a competitive Republican challenger. Trader consensus at 97.3% for the Democratic Party aligns with these structural factors. A late scandal affecting the Democratic nominee or an unforeseen national realignment could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical patterns in the district make such shifts improbable before November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$39,925End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).New York’s 13th congressional district carries a strongly Democratic Partisan Voter Index of D+32, reflecting consistent large margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles and minimal Republican infrastructure. The June 2026 Democratic primary resolved in favor of Darializa Avila Chevalier, who defeated longtime incumbent Adriano Espaillat, leaving a unified party nominee for the November general election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the absence of a competitive Republican challenger. Trader consensus at 97.3% for the Democratic Party aligns with these structural factors. A late scandal affecting the Democratic nominee or an unforeseen national realignment could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical patterns in the district make such shifts improbable before November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$39,925End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...New York’s 13th congressional district carries a strongly Democratic Partisan Voter Index of D+32, reflecting consistent large margins for Democratic candidates in recent cycles and minimal Republican infrastructure. The June 2026 Democratic primary resolved in favor of Darializa Avila Chevalier, who defeated longtime incumbent Adriano Espaillat, leaving a unified party nominee for the November general election. Forecasters across Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the absence of a competitive Republican challenger. Trader consensus at 97.3% for the Democratic Party aligns with these structural factors. A late scandal affecting the Democratic nominee or an unforeseen national realignment could theoretically narrow the gap, though historical patterns in the district make such shifts improbable before November 3, 2026.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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