Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District, rated Solid or Safe Republican by multiple forecasters with an R+11 Partisan Voter Index, features an open seat after incumbent Kevin Hern sought a Senate nomination. The Republican primary produced a runoff between state Representative Mark Tedford and Jackson Lahmeyer, after which Lahmeyer withdrew, leaving Tedford as the nominee. Democrat John Croisant, a Tulsa Public Schools board member, advanced unopposed. These developments, combined with the district’s consistent Republican performance in recent presidential and congressional cycles, underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at roughly 90 percent. A late scandal affecting the Republican candidate, an unanticipated national Democratic surge, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and structural factors limit the realistic probability of an upset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOK-01 House Election Winner
OK-01 House Election Winner
$25,122 Vol.
$25,122 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
91%
Democratic Party
9%
$25,122 Vol.
$25,122 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Republican Party
$13,268 Vol.
91%
Democratic Party
$11,854 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District, rated Solid or Safe Republican by multiple forecasters with an R+11 Partisan Voter Index, features an open seat after incumbent Kevin Hern sought a Senate nomination. The Republican primary produced a runoff between state Representative Mark Tedford and Jackson Lahmeyer, after which Lahmeyer withdrew, leaving Tedford as the nominee. Democrat John Croisant, a Tulsa Public Schools board member, advanced unopposed. These developments, combined with the district’s consistent Republican performance in recent presidential and congressional cycles, underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at roughly 90 percent. A late scandal affecting the Republican candidate, an unanticipated national Democratic surge, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and structural factors limit the realistic probability of an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$25,122End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District, rated Solid or Safe Republican by multiple forecasters with an R+11 Partisan Voter Index, features an open seat after incumbent Kevin Hern sought a Senate nomination. The Republican primary produced a runoff between state Representative Mark Tedford and Jackson Lahmeyer, after which Lahmeyer withdrew, leaving Tedford as the nominee. Democrat John Croisant, a Tulsa Public Schools board member, advanced unopposed. These developments, combined with the district’s consistent Republican performance in recent presidential and congressional cycles, underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at roughly 90 percent. A late scandal affecting the Republican candidate, an unanticipated national Democratic surge, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and structural factors limit the realistic probability of an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OK-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$25,122End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Oklahoma’s 1st Congressional District, rated Solid or Safe Republican by multiple forecasters with an R+11 Partisan Voter Index, features an open seat after incumbent Kevin Hern sought a Senate nomination. The Republican primary produced a runoff between state Representative Mark Tedford and Jackson Lahmeyer, after which Lahmeyer withdrew, leaving Tedford as the nominee. Democrat John Croisant, a Tulsa Public Schools board member, advanced unopposed. These developments, combined with the district’s consistent Republican performance in recent presidential and congressional cycles, underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee at roughly 90 percent. A late scandal affecting the Republican candidate, an unanticipated national Democratic surge, or unusually high Democratic turnout could narrow the margin, though historical patterns and structural factors limit the realistic probability of an upset.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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