Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago on September 9 points to a high in the lower 80s amid a passing frontal system, with southwest winds of 10–15 mph, increasing cloud cover, and a 60% chance of showers or thunderstorms that limit daytime heating. This setup follows an early-September heat wave that produced several days above 90°F at O’Hare, but the incoming moisture and reduced insolation have pulled consensus forecasts down from earlier runs. Historical climatology shows a normal high near 79°F, so trader emphasis on the 80–81°F bin reflects the narrow window between modest warming ahead of the front and cooling from widespread cloud and rain. Updated model cycles and the next NWS forecast discussion remain the key near-term catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chicago on September 9?
Highest temperature in Chicago on September 9?
80-81°F 32%
78-79°F 24%
82-83°F 22%
76-77°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
75°F or below
5%
76-77°F
11%
78-79°F
24%
80-81°F
32%
82-83°F
22%
84-85°F
8%
86-87°F
2%
88-89°F
3%
90-91°F
2%
92-93°F
3%
94°F or higher
1%
80-81°F 32%
78-79°F 24%
82-83°F 22%
76-77°F 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
75°F or below
$49 Vol.
5%
76-77°F
$14 Vol.
11%
78-79°F
$62 Vol.
24%
80-81°F
$125 Vol.
32%
82-83°F
$52 Vol.
22%
84-85°F
$64 Vol.
8%
86-87°F
$5 Vol.
2%
88-89°F
$30 Vol.
3%
90-91°F
$100 Vol.
2%
92-93°F
$100 Vol.
3%
94°F or higher
$30 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago on September 9 points to a high in the lower 80s amid a passing frontal system, with southwest winds of 10–15 mph, increasing cloud cover, and a 60% chance of showers or thunderstorms that limit daytime heating. This setup follows an early-September heat wave that produced several days above 90°F at O’Hare, but the incoming moisture and reduced insolation have pulled consensus forecasts down from earlier runs. Historical climatology shows a normal high near 79°F, so trader emphasis on the 80–81°F bin reflects the narrow window between modest warming ahead of the front and cooling from widespread cloud and rain. Updated model cycles and the next NWS forecast discussion remain the key near-term catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$630End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago on September 9 points to a high in the lower 80s amid a passing frontal system, with southwest winds of 10–15 mph, increasing cloud cover, and a 60% chance of showers or thunderstorms that limit daytime heating. This setup follows an early-September heat wave that produced several days above 90°F at O’Hare, but the incoming moisture and reduced insolation have pulled consensus forecasts down from earlier runs. Historical climatology shows a normal high near 79°F, so trader emphasis on the 80–81°F bin reflects the narrow window between modest warming ahead of the front and cooling from widespread cloud and rain. Updated model cycles and the next NWS forecast discussion remain the key near-term catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kord
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$630End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kordResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance for Chicago on September 9 points to a high in the lower 80s amid a passing frontal system, with southwest winds of 10–15 mph, increasing cloud cover, and a 60% chance of showers or thunderstorms that limit daytime heating. This setup follows an early-September heat wave that produced several days above 90°F at O’Hare, but the incoming moisture and reduced insolation have pulled consensus forecasts down from earlier runs. Historical climatology shows a normal high near 79°F, so trader emphasis on the 80–81°F bin reflects the narrow window between modest warming ahead of the front and cooling from widespread cloud and rain. Updated model cycles and the next NWS forecast discussion remain the key near-term catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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