Recent model consensus from global ensembles points to a July 12 maximum near 27–28 °C in Istanbul, consistent with early-month climatology and the moderating influence of Bosphorus and Black Sea breezes that typically cap peaks 3–5 °C below inland values. Traders have clustered probability on the 26–28 °C brackets because current GFS and ECMWF runs show weak synoptic forcing, limited cloud cover, and light northerly flow that favors modest daytime heating without strong advection of hotter continental air. Slight upward bias in some extended forecasts reflects uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any sea-breeze front, while the low odds on 31 °C+ outcomes align with historical rarity of such extremes before mid-July. Updated runs over the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the range as resolution criteria focus on official Turkish Meteorological Service observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on July 12?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on July 12?
27°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$33,827 Vol.
$33,827 Vol.
Jul 12, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
22°C or below <1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$33,827 Vol.
$33,827 Vol.
Jul 12, 2026
22°C or below
$1,031 Vol.
No
23°C
$406 Vol.
No
24°C
$1,032 Vol.
No
25°C
$2,953 Vol.
No
26°C
$7,795 Vol.
No
27°C
$6,208 Vol.
Yes
28°C
$6,946 Vol.
No
29°C
$2,776 Vol.
No
30°C
$2,638 Vol.
No
31°C
$871 Vol.
No
32°C or higher
$1,171 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from global ensembles points to a July 12 maximum near 27–28 °C in Istanbul, consistent with early-month climatology and the moderating influence of Bosphorus and Black Sea breezes that typically cap peaks 3–5 °C below inland values. Traders have clustered probability on the 26–28 °C brackets because current GFS and ECMWF runs show weak synoptic forcing, limited cloud cover, and light northerly flow that favors modest daytime heating without strong advection of hotter continental air. Slight upward bias in some extended forecasts reflects uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any sea-breeze front, while the low odds on 31 °C+ outcomes align with historical rarity of such extremes before mid-July. Updated runs over the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the range as resolution criteria focus on official Turkish Meteorological Service observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$33,827End Date
Jul 12, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from global ensembles points to a July 12 maximum near 27–28 °C in Istanbul, consistent with early-month climatology and the moderating influence of Bosphorus and Black Sea breezes that typically cap peaks 3–5 °C below inland values. Traders have clustered probability on the 26–28 °C brackets because current GFS and ECMWF runs show weak synoptic forcing, limited cloud cover, and light northerly flow that favors modest daytime heating without strong advection of hotter continental air. Slight upward bias in some extended forecasts reflects uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any sea-breeze front, while the low odds on 31 °C+ outcomes align with historical rarity of such extremes before mid-July. Updated runs over the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the range as resolution criteria focus on official Turkish Meteorological Service observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$33,827End Date
Jul 12, 2026Market Opened
Jul 10, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent model consensus from global ensembles points to a July 12 maximum near 27–28 °C in Istanbul, consistent with early-month climatology and the moderating influence of Bosphorus and Black Sea breezes that typically cap peaks 3–5 °C below inland values. Traders have clustered probability on the 26–28 °C brackets because current GFS and ECMWF runs show weak synoptic forcing, limited cloud cover, and light northerly flow that favors modest daytime heating without strong advection of hotter continental air. Slight upward bias in some extended forecasts reflects uncertainty in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any sea-breeze front, while the low odds on 31 °C+ outcomes align with historical rarity of such extremes before mid-July. Updated runs over the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten the range as resolution criteria focus on official Turkish Meteorological Service observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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