Latest National Weather Service guidance and model ensembles from NOAA, including GFS and ECMWF, project Los Angeles highs in the mid-to-upper 70s°F on April 18, driving the 79% market-implied probability for 72°F or higher. A building high-pressure ridge over California promotes downslope warming and light northeast winds, eroding the typical coastal marine layer that often caps springtime temperatures around the April climatological normal of 72°F. Recent developments, including clearing skies and observed temperature rises to 70°F earlier this week, reinforce trader consensus on above-normal warmth, though lingering stratus could temper peaks to the lower 70s. New 12z model runs and NWS updates expected Thursday afternoon may refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Los Angeles on April 18?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on April 18?
72°F or higher 79%
70-71°F 13%
68-69°F 7%
66-67°F 2.4%
53°F or below
<1%
54-55°F
<1%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
1%
62-63°F
1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
2%
68-69°F
7%
70-71°F
13%
72°F or higher
79%
72°F or higher 79%
70-71°F 13%
68-69°F 7%
66-67°F 2.4%
53°F or below
<1%
54-55°F
<1%
56-57°F
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
1%
62-63°F
1%
64-65°F
1%
66-67°F
2%
68-69°F
7%
70-71°F
13%
72°F or higher
79%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 16, 2026, 1:32 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service guidance and model ensembles from NOAA, including GFS and ECMWF, project Los Angeles highs in the mid-to-upper 70s°F on April 18, driving the 79% market-implied probability for 72°F or higher. A building high-pressure ridge over California promotes downslope warming and light northeast winds, eroding the typical coastal marine layer that often caps springtime temperatures around the April climatological normal of 72°F. Recent developments, including clearing skies and observed temperature rises to 70°F earlier this week, reinforce trader consensus on above-normal warmth, though lingering stratus could temper peaks to the lower 70s. New 12z model runs and NWS updates expected Thursday afternoon may refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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