Recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs shows Madrid’s September 9 maximum cooling to 26–28 °C after consecutive days above 35 °C, driven by a shift to northeasterly flow that advects cooler maritime air and increases low-level cloud cover, limiting surface heating. Official AEMET guidance and hourly guidance from Yr.no peak near 26–27 °C under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around these values reflects remaining uncertainty in exact cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, and minor model spread on the strength of the wind shift. Later forecast updates from AEMET and the next ECMWF cycle will clarify whether daytime insolation supports the upper or lower end of the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on September 9?
Highest temperature in Madrid on September 9?
27°C 38%
28°C 28%
26°C 22%
25°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
24°C or below
2%
25°C
6%
26°C
22%
27°C
38%
28°C
28%
29°C
5%
30°C
1%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
27°C 38%
28°C 28%
26°C 22%
25°C 6%
NEW
NEW
Sep 9, 2026
24°C or below
$624 Vol.
2%
25°C
$21 Vol.
6%
26°C
$163 Vol.
22%
27°C
$476 Vol.
38%
28°C
$406 Vol.
28%
29°C
$31 Vol.
5%
30°C
$232 Vol.
1%
31°C
$20 Vol.
1%
32°C
$293 Vol.
<1%
33°C
$119 Vol.
<1%
34°C or higher
$384 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs shows Madrid’s September 9 maximum cooling to 26–28 °C after consecutive days above 35 °C, driven by a shift to northeasterly flow that advects cooler maritime air and increases low-level cloud cover, limiting surface heating. Official AEMET guidance and hourly guidance from Yr.no peak near 26–27 °C under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around these values reflects remaining uncertainty in exact cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, and minor model spread on the strength of the wind shift. Later forecast updates from AEMET and the next ECMWF cycle will clarify whether daytime insolation supports the upper or lower end of the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 7, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$2,728End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs shows Madrid’s September 9 maximum cooling to 26–28 °C after consecutive days above 35 °C, driven by a shift to northeasterly flow that advects cooler maritime air and increases low-level cloud cover, limiting surface heating. Official AEMET guidance and hourly guidance from Yr.no peak near 26–27 °C under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around these values reflects remaining uncertainty in exact cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, and minor model spread on the strength of the wind shift. Later forecast updates from AEMET and the next ECMWF cycle will clarify whether daytime insolation supports the upper or lower end of the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,728End Date
Sep 9, 2026Market Opened
Sep 7, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs shows Madrid’s September 9 maximum cooling to 26–28 °C after consecutive days above 35 °C, driven by a shift to northeasterly flow that advects cooler maritime air and increases low-level cloud cover, limiting surface heating. Official AEMET guidance and hourly guidance from Yr.no peak near 26–27 °C under partly cloudy skies with light northerly winds. The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around these values reflects remaining uncertainty in exact cloud timing, boundary-layer mixing, and minor model spread on the strength of the wind shift. Later forecast updates from AEMET and the next ECMWF cycle will clarify whether daytime insolation supports the upper or lower end of the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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